--- title: "Vanilla case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vanilla ($40.76) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.20% from 14 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Vanilla](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla) # [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Vanilla A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla?window=all) Price · $40.76 · 66.36 coins Advertised RTP · 91.20% · EV $37.17 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vanilla?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Knife \| Butterfly Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-butterfly-knife) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,597 2,599 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Knife \| Skeleton Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-skeleton-knife) | 1 in 500 | $800 1,302 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Knife \| Bayonet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-bayonet) | 1 in 345 | $539 877 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Knife \| Talon Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-talon-knife) | 1 in 222 | $439 715 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Knife \| Flip Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-flip-knife) | 1 in 133 | $339 552 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Knife \| Huntsman Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-huntsman-knife) | 1 in 83 | $208 338 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Knife \| Falchion Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-falchion-knife) | 1 in 40 | $160 260 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Knife \| Bowie Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-bowie-knife) | 1 in 29 | $148 240 coins | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Knife \| Gut Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-gut-knife) | 1 in 18 | $116 188 coins | 17.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Minimal Wear) gloves · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $77.85 127 coins | 14.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $50.83 82.74 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Memento (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-memento-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 09:22 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=vanilla) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $40.76 | 91.20% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 14.7% #ffd700 6.8% mil spec 28.5% Rare 25.0% industrial 25.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.20 on average: an expected loss of $8.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt