---
title: "Vibrant case on CSGOEmpire: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Vibrant ($15.01) on CSGOEmpire, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.22% from 16 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) / [Vibrant](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant)

# [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) · Vibrant

A case on CSGOEmpire (Featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOEmpire's own item price converted from Empire coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant?window=all)

Price · $15.01 · 24.43 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.22% · EV $13.69 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/vibrant?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,228 1,999 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $507 826 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 667 | $206 335 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $139 226 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $108 176 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $83.24 136 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $62.71 102 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $47.26 76.93 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $32.14 52.32 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $28.12 45.78 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $22.78 37.09 coins | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $20.76 33.79 coins | 11.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 10.3% | $17.89 29.13 coins | 13.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $16.26 26.47 coins | 14.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.08 0.13 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOEmpire's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoempire:caseopening/case.chance`, 11 Nov, 15:30 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoempire&case=vibrant)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.01 | 91.22% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.7% classified 26.6% extraordinary 0.8% violet 20.0% #8847ff 30.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.22 on average: an expected loss of $8.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt