--- title: "10% AWP case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% AWP ($8.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 10 items with odds, observed 92.54% over 40K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp rendered: 2026-11-11T20:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [10% AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 10% AWP A case on CSGORoll (10%, awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp?window=all) Price · $8.87 · 12.67 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $8.06 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.54% · 40K openings, odds method Variance · 112.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 48 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 131.42% ±29.49 4,957 openings 7 days · 94.38% ±11.57 31.5K openings 30 days · 92.54% ±10.24 40K openings since tracking started · 92.54% ±10.24 40K openings 81.5% 121.5% 161.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp?window=24h) | 4,957 | 131.42% ±29.5 | +2.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp?window=7d) | 31.5K | 94.38% ±11.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp) | 40K | 92.54% ±10.2 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-awp?window=all) | 40K | 92.54% ±10.2 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,521 10,745 coins | 9.3% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 19.8% | 37 | 36.0 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $102 145 coins | 12.6% | 405 | 400.3 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $94.50 135 coins | 11.7% | 389 | 400.3 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $83.30 119 coins | 10.3% | 382 | 400.3 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $76.30 109 coins | 9.5% | 381 | 400.3 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $38.76 55.37 coins | 13.5% | 1,111 | 1120.9 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $36.40 52 coins | 6.8% | 617 | 600.5 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $32.17 45.95 coins | 6.4% | 621 | 640.5 | 0.97× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 36,083 | 36027.9 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $7,521 10,745 coins 848.1x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $7,521 10,745 coins 848.1x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $7,521 10,745 coins 848.1x 2026-11-11 04:41 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $7,521 10,745 coins 848.1x 2026-11-09 01:24 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $8.86 12.66 coins $7,227 10,325 coins 815.6x 2026-11-03 19:37 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $8.86 12.66 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 200.6x 2026-11-08 00:20 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [RA$CO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/RA%24CO) $8.86 12.66 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 200.6x 2026-11-07 23:47 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [Krampus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Krampus) $8.86 12.66 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 200.6x 2026-11-07 16:37 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $8.86 12.66 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 200.6x 2026-11-07 15:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $8.86 12.66 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 200.6x 2026-11-07 13:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=10percent-awp) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Marco](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Marco) $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.87 12.67 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.87 | 90.92% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.84 | 90.92% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.86 | 90.88% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% classified 1.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $7,521 (848.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt