--- title: "10% Baller case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Baller ($282.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller rendered: 2026-11-11T19:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [10% Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 10% Baller A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller?window=all) Price · $282.99 · 404 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $257.27 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-baller?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,923 5,605 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2,454 3,505 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,115 1,593 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $999 1,427 coins | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $931 1,330 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $398 569 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 90.0% | $181 258 coins | 63.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $2,461 3,515 coins 8.34x 2026-11-06 12:42 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [William](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/William) $295 421 coins $966 1,380 coins 3.27x 2026-11-06 12:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=10percent-baller) [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-07 17:09 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-06 13:05 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-06 13:04 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-06 13:04 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-06 12:56 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-06 12:44 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-06 12:44 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-06 12:44 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $193 275 coins 0.65x 2026-11-06 12:44 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $295 421 coins $2,461 3,515 coins 8.34x 2026-11-06 12:42 UTC ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $283 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $295 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 96.7% classified 0.3% extraordinary 3.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt