--- title: "10% Knife case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Knife ($6.76) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 10 items with odds, observed 91.70% over 51.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T17:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 10% Knife A case on CSGORoll (10%, hot, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife?window=all) Price · $6.76 · 9.66 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $6.15 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.70% · 51.2K openings, odds method Variance · 18.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.66% ±11.88 4,891 openings 7 days · 93.12% ±3.96 43.1K openings 30 days · 91.70% ±3.63 51.2K openings since tracking started · 91.70% ±3.63 51.2K openings 80.0% 92.5% 105.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife?window=24h) | 4,891 | 92.66% ±11.9 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife?window=7d) | 43.1K | 93.12% ±3.96 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife) | 51.2K | 91.70% ±3.63 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-knife?window=all) | 51.2K | 91.70% ±3.63 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 1.7% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $631 902 coins | 10.3% | 50 | 51.3 | 0.98× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $181 258 coins | 4.4% | 79 | 76.9 | 1.03× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $138 197 coins | 5.6% | 118 | 128.2 | 0.92× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $65.53 93.61 coins | 16.0% | 764 | 769.1 | 0.99× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $61.61 88.01 coins | 10.0% | 516 | 512.7 | 1.01× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $59.80 85.43 coins | 14.5% | 794 | 764.0 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $45.15 64.5 coins | 18.4% | 1,273 | 1281.8 | 0.99× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $38.73 55.33 coins | 18.9% | 1,606 | 1538.2 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 46,067 | 46145.7 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $6.93 9.9 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 156.3x 2026-11-07 10:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $6.93 9.9 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 156.3x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) [User#276](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23276) $6.93 9.9 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 156.3x 2026-11-06 09:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) [Math\_77](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Math_77) $6.93 9.9 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 156.3x 2026-11-05 23:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $6.93 9.9 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 156.3x 2026-11-05 11:02 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $1,058 1,512 coins 156.5x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $631 902 coins 93.37x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) [its 12 meter kuk, bitches](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/its%2012%20meter%20kuk%2C%20bitches) $6.76 9.66 coins $631 902 coins 93.37x 2026-11-11 00:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) [Mr. Electricidad](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mr.%20Electricidad) $6.76 9.66 coins $631 902 coins 93.37x 2026-11-10 23:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $631 902 coins 93.37x 2026-11-10 21:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=10percent-knife) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Crom](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Crom) $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $6.76 9.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.76 | 90.89% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.90 | 90.87% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.93 | 90.86% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $1,083 (156.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt