---
title: "10% M4A1-S case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "10% M4A1-S ($25.22) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.06% over 9,879 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [10% M4A1-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 10% M4A1-S

A case on CSGORoll (10%, rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s?window=all)

Price · $25.22 · 36.03 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $22.93 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.06% · 9,879 openings, odds method

Variance · 30.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 91 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.93% ±29.75 1,342 openings

7 days · 92.90% ±11.91 8,243 openings

30 days · 92.06% ±10.86 9,879 openings

since tracking started · 92.06% ±10.86 9,879 openings

68.5% 99.0% 129.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s?window=24h) | 1,342 | 98.93% ±29.8 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s?window=7d) | 8,243 | 92.90% ±11.9 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s) | 9,879 | 92.06% ±10.9 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-m4a1-s?window=all) | 9,879 | 92.06% ±10.9 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,905 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 17.1% | 16 | 14.9 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 11.9% | 19 | 19.8 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,091 1,559 coins | 9.5% | 21 | 19.8 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $827 1,182 coins | 7.2% | 18 | 19.8 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $465 664 coins | 7.1% | 38 | 34.7 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $385 550 coins | 8.4% | 56 | 49.5 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $153 219 coins | 5.0% | 67 | 74.3 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $143 204 coins | 6.2% | 77 | 99.0 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $113 161 coins | 12.3% | 255 | 247.6 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $97.30 139 coins | 5.1% | 126 | 118.9 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $79.10 113 coins | 4.3% | 113 | 123.8 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $60.80 86.86 coins | 4.5% | 179 | 168.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.55 0.78 coins | 0.4% | 1,486 | 1485.8 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.41 0.59 coins | 0.4% | 1,867 | 1981.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.41 0.58 coins | 0.4% | 2,470 | 2476.3 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 0.1% | 3,097 | 2971.5 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 103.7x 2026-11-11 22:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 103.7x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 103.7x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [\*,\*BoBBasMaNn\*XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/*%2C*BoBBasMaNn*XD-2273262) $25.22 36.03 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 103.7x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 103.7x 2026-11-10 21:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 103.7x 2026-11-10 19:36 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 103.7x 2026-11-10 15:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 103.7x 2026-11-09 14:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $25.81 36.87 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 100.5x 2026-11-07 04:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [hrsnmisgesalle](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hrsnmisgesalle) $25.81 36.87 coins $2,594 3,705 coins 100.5x 2026-11-06 20:43 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=10percent-m4a1-s)

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) [DarkSkizzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DarkSkizzy) $25.22 36.03 coins $1,369 1,955 coins 54.26x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 23:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [H8STEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/H8STEN) $25.22 36.03 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 23:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $0.41 0.59 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 23:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $25.22 36.03 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $25.22 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $25.23 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.23 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.20 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.81 | 90.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 1.7% legendary 0.2% covert 4.0% restricted 48.4% epic 0.8% Mythical 15.0% industrial 30.0% best hit $2,615 (103.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt