---
title: "10% USP-S case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "10% USP-S ($3.66) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.85% from 8 items with odds, observed 92.06% over 137K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [10% USP-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 10% USP-S

A case on CSGORoll (10%, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s?window=all)

Price · $3.66 · 5.23 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.85% · EV $3.33 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.06% · 137K openings, odds method

Variance · 17.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.06% ±6.81 14.3K openings

7 days · 91.96% ±2.49 109K openings

30 days · 92.06% ±2.22 137K openings

since tracking started · 92.06% ±2.22 137K openings

82.5% 90.0% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s?window=24h) | 14.3K | 90.06% ±6.81 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s?window=7d) | 109K | 91.96% ±2.49 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s) | 137K | 92.06% ±2.22 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/10percent-usp-s?window=all) | 137K | 92.06% ±2.22 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 137K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $289 413 coins | 0.9% | 16 | 13.7 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $95.20 136 coins | 57.2% | 2,819 | 2747.6 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.8% | 134 | 137.4 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 204 | $78.40 112 coins | 11.6% | 652 | 673.2 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $27.65 39.5 coins | 8.3% | 1,406 | 1373.8 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $12.48 17.83 coins | 11.3% | 4,096 | 4121.4 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $6.26 8.95 coins | 6.4% | 4,641 | 4670.9 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 1.5% | 123,616 | 123642.0 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) [VierQuantenPro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/VierQuantenPro) $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-07 16:17 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-06 14:43 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-05 12:23 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-04 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-04 19:54 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) [Ra$van / csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ra%24van%20%2F%20%20csgoroll.com) $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-04 14:07 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-03 14:52 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) [scottieh378](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/scottieh378) $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-03 04:39 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 5.11 coins $296 423 coins 82.78x 2026-11-03 01:36 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) Hidden $3.66 5.23 coins $289 413 coins 78.97x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=10percent-usp-s)

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Kenny Starfighter CSGOROLL.COM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kenny%20Starfighter%20CSGOROLL.COM) $3.66 5.23 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Gvidaz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gvidaz) $3.66 5.23 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Kenny Starfighter CSGOROLL.COM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kenny%20Starfighter%20CSGOROLL.COM) $3.66 5.23 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Gvidaz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gvidaz) $3.66 5.23 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) Hidden $3.66 5.23 coins $78.40 112 coins 21.41x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.66 5.23 coins $12.48 17.83 coins 3.41x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Kenny Starfighter CSGOROLL.COM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kenny%20Starfighter%20CSGOROLL.COM) $3.66 5.23 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) Hidden $3.66 5.23 coins $95.20 136 coins 26.00x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Kenny Starfighter CSGOROLL.COM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kenny%20Starfighter%20CSGOROLL.COM) $3.66 5.23 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $3.66 5.23 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.66 | 90.85% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.62 | 90.89% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.58 | 90.84% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 4.4% covert 2.1% restricted 0.5% mil spec 3.0% industrial 90.0% best hit $296 (82.78x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.85 on average: an expected loss of $9.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt