--- title: "1% FN D LORE case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% FN D LORE ($116.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 64.80% over 2,677 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore rendered: 2026-11-11T20:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [1% FN D LORE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 1% FN D LORE A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore?window=all) Price · $116.51 · 166 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $105.93 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.80% · 2,677 openings, odds method Variance · 81.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 258 openings · below min 7 days · 59.93% ±35.93 2,437 openings 30 days · 64.80% ±34.28 2,677 openings since tracking started · 64.80% ±34.28 2,677 openings -0.5% 73.0% 146.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore?window=24h) | 258 | 35.24% ±110.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore?window=7d) | 2,437 | 59.93% ±35.9 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore) | 2,677 | 64.80% ±34.3 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-fn-d-lore?window=all) | 2,677 | 64.80% ±34.3 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,677 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 100.0% | 19 | 26.8 | 0.71× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 12.4% | $0.04 0.06 coins | 0.0% | 313 | 331.3 | 0.94× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 12.4% | $0.03 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 313 | 331.3 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) | 12.4% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 324 | 331.3 | 0.98× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 12.4% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 340 | 331.3 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 12.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 305 | 331.3 | 0.92× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) | 12.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 348 | 331.3 | 1.05× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 12.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 354 | 331.3 | 1.07× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 12.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 361 | 331.3 | 1.09× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-08 14:29 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-08 07:51 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [1ikedior](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/1ikedior) $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-08 01:55 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-07 17:45 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-07 14:36 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-07 14:35 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-07 00:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-07 00:12 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $119 170 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 90.90x 2026-11-06 17:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=1percent-fn-d-lore) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $117 166 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $117 166 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $117 166 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $117 166 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $117 166 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) [Petrrr csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Petrrr%20csgoroll.com) $117 166 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $117 166 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $117 166 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $117 166 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $117 166 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $117 | 90.91% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% consumer 99.0% best hit $10.8K (90.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt