--- title: "1% Lore case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1% Lore ($5.61) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.88% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.95% over 9,906 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [1% Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 1% Lore A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore?window=all) Price · $5.61 · 8.01 coins Advertised RTP · 90.88% · EV $5.10 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.95% · 9,906 openings, odds method Variance · 38.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 104.60% ±34.24 1,244 openings 7 days · 93.14% ±13.17 8,390 openings 30 days · 91.95% ±12.12 9,906 openings since tracking started · 91.95% ±12.12 9,906 openings 69.5% 104.5% 139.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore?window=24h) | 1,244 | 104.60% ±34.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore?window=7d) | 8,390 | 93.14% ±13.2 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore) | 9,906 | 91.95% ±12.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/1percent-lore?window=all) | 9,906 | 91.95% ±12.1 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,906 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,288 1,840 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $638 912 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $598 854 coins | 5.9% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $434 620 coins | 8.5% | 15 | 9.9 | 1.51× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 298 | $314 449 coins | 20.7% | 33 | 33.3 | 0.99× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $121 173 coins | 11.9% | 51 | 49.5 | 1.03× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $4.69 6.7 coins | 10.1% | 1,086 | 1089.7 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $4.26 6.09 coins | 9.2% | 1,071 | 1089.7 | 0.98× | | [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-factory-new) | 11.0% | $3.77 5.38 coins | 8.1% | 1,141 | 1089.7 | 1.05× | | [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-well-worn) | 11.0% | $3.38 4.83 coins | 7.3% | 1,057 | 1089.7 | 0.97× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $1.72 2.45 coins | 3.7% | 1,120 | 1089.7 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $1.72 2.45 coins | 3.7% | 1,040 | 1089.7 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.32 1.88 coins | 2.8% | 1,105 | 1089.7 | 1.01× | | [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $1.15 1.65 coins | 2.5% | 1,109 | 1089.7 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.99 1.41 coins | 2.1% | 1,073 | 1089.7 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) [Shelp Jr.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shelp%20Jr.) $5.61 8.01 coins $598 854 coins 106.6x 2026-11-10 20:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $598 854 coins 106.6x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 8.04 coins $598 854 coins 106.2x 2026-11-08 16:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 8.04 coins $598 854 coins 106.2x 2026-11-08 16:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $5.61 8.02 coins $597 853 coins 106.4x 2026-11-06 18:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $5.64 8.05 coins $597 853 coins 106.0x 2026-11-03 11:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $5.64 8.05 coins $597 853 coins 106.0x 2026-11-03 03:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $434 620 coins 77.40x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $434 620 coins 77.40x 2026-11-10 18:50 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $434 620 coins 77.40x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=1percent-lore) [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $5.61 8.01 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $0.99 1.41 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [UMP-45 | Scaffold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-factory-new) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $3.77 5.38 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $1.32 1.88 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $5.61 8.01 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.61 8.01 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $5.61 | 90.88% | 16 | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.61 | 90.95% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.62 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.61 | 90.89% | 16 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $5.62 | 90.90% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $5.62 | 90.89% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $5.61 | 90.93% | 16 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $5.60 | 90.91% | 16 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.61 | 90.88% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.64 | 90.94% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.9% epic 0.1% restricted 66.0% mil spec 22.0% Rare 11.0% best hit $598 (106.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.88 on average: an expected loss of $9.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt