--- title: "5% Asiimov case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Asiimov ($11.63) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 6 items with odds, observed 91.04% over 29.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov rendered: 2026-11-11T23:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [5% Asiimov](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 5% Asiimov A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov?window=all) Price · $11.63 · 16.62 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $10.58 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.04% · 29.9K openings, odds method Variance · 24.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.78% ±18.80 2,624 openings 7 days · 89.15% ±6.34 23.1K openings 30 days · 91.04% ±5.57 29.9K openings since tracking started · 91.04% ±5.57 29.9K openings 72.5% 91.8% 111.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov?window=24h) | 2,624 | 91.78% ±18.8 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov?window=7d) | 23.1K | 89.15% ±6.34 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov) | 29.9K | 91.04% ±5.57 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-asiimov?window=all) | 29.9K | 91.04% ±5.57 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $477 682 coins | 45.1% | 303 | 299.3 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $221 316 coins | 20.9% | 293 | 299.3 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $218 312 coins | 20.7% | 285 | 299.3 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $113 162 coins | 10.7% | 314 | 299.3 | 1.05× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $26.49 37.84 coins | 2.5% | 344 | 299.3 | 1.15× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 28,387 | 28429.7 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=5percent-asiimov) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $11.63 16.62 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $11.63 16.62 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [jerm01](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/jerm01) $11.63 16.62 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:29 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.63 16.62 coins $26.49 37.84 coins 2.28x 2026-11-11 23:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $11.63 16.62 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [jerm01](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/jerm01) $11.63 16.62 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $11.63 16.62 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:29 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) Hidden $11.63 16.62 coins $477 682 coins 41.03x 2026-11-11 23:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $11.63 16.62 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $11.63 16.62 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.63 | 90.90% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.65 | 90.91% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.87 | 90.91% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 1.0% covert 3.0% classified 1.0% consumer 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt