--- title: "5% Awp case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Awp ($3.86) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.84% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.75% over 162K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp rendered: 2026-11-11T19:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [5% Awp](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 5% Awp A case on CSGORoll (5%, awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp?window=all) Price · $3.86 · 5.51 coins Advertised RTP · 90.84% · EV $3.50 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.75% · 162K openings, odds method Variance · 102.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 99 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.66% ±16.11 15.2K openings 7 days · 89.78% ±5.50 131K openings 30 days · 89.75% ±4.95 162K openings since tracking started · 89.75% ±4.95 162K openings 78.0% 94.8% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp?window=24h) | 15.2K | 94.66% ±16.1 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp?window=7d) | 131K | 89.78% ±5.50 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp) | 162K | 89.75% ±4.95 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-awp?window=all) | 162K | 89.75% ±4.95 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 22,222 | $4,946 7,065 coins | 6.4% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 2.2% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $207 296 coins | 29.6% | 809 | 811.9 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $93.10 133 coins | 13.3% | 798 | 811.9 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 8.8% | 956 | 974.2 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $42.41 60.58 coins | 12.6% | 1,713 | 1689.5 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 8.4% | 1,168 | 1217.8 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $32.87 46.96 coins | 7.5% | 1,335 | 1299.0 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $32.82 46.89 coins | 7.5% | 1,357 | 1299.0 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 95.0% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 3.8% | 154,221 | 154252.4 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) [Dnz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dnz) $3.82 5.46 coins $4,960 7,085 coins 1,298x 2026-11-08 10:22 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $3.82 5.46 coins $4,960 7,085 coins 1,298x 2026-11-08 06:07 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) [RUFFY325](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/RUFFY325) $3.82 5.46 coins $4,960 7,085 coins 1,298x 2026-11-07 01:26 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $3.82 5.46 coins $4,960 7,085 coins 1,298x 2026-11-05 18:10 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $3.82 5.46 coins $4,960 7,085 coins 1,298x 2026-11-04 14:27 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $4,946 7,065 coins 1,282x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $1,528 2,183 coins 396.2x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $1,528 2,183 coins 396.2x 2026-11-09 19:31 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $1,528 2,183 coins 396.2x 2026-11-09 18:22 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) [N1M8U5](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/N1M8U5) $3.83 5.47 coins $1,528 2,183 coins 399.1x 2026-11-08 16:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=5percent-awp) [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [carboo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/carboo) $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Shrimp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shrimp) $3.86 5.51 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $3.86 | 90.84% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.86 | 90.85% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.82 | 90.83% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.82 | 90.97% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.6% classified 0.6% restricted 0.8% industrial 95.0% best hit $4,960 (1,298x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.84 on average: an expected loss of $9.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt