--- title: "5% Knife case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Knife ($4.20) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.84% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.44% over 53.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T20:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [5% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 5% Knife A case on CSGORoll (5%, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife?window=all) Price · $4.20 · 6 coins Advertised RTP · 90.84% · EV $3.82 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.44% · 53.4K openings, odds method Variance · 25.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 36 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.10% ±12.61 6,233 openings 7 days · 86.15% ±4.82 43.3K openings 30 days · 86.44% ±4.34 53.4K openings since tracking started · 86.44% ±4.34 53.4K openings 71.0% 84.3% 97.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.88% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.10% – 90.78%, 53,394 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife?window=24h) | 6,233 | 84.10% ±12.6 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife?window=7d) | 43.3K | 86.15% ±4.82 | −1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife) | 53.4K | 86.44% ±4.34 | −2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-knife?window=all) | 53.4K | 86.44% ±4.34 | −2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $860 1,228 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $509 727 coins | 6.7% | 17 | 26.7 | 0.64× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $190 271 coins | 3.7% | 39 | 40.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 800 | $141 201 coins | 4.6% | 54 | 66.8 | 0.81× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 134 | $127 181 coins | 24.7% | 375 | 398.0 | 0.94× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $98.70 141 coins | 6.5% | 136 | 133.6 | 1.02× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $57.08 81.55 coins | 22.4% | 825 | 801.4 | 1.03× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $51.64 73.77 coins | 10.2% | 402 | 400.7 | 1.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $50.59 72.27 coins | 19.9% | 799 | 801.4 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 50,778 | 50754.7 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.26 6.09 coins $939 1,342 coins 220.4x 2026-11-03 21:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $4.26 6.09 coins $536 766 coins 125.8x 2026-11-07 12:43 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $4.26 6.09 coins $536 766 coins 125.8x 2026-11-07 00:33 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) [Aarmin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Aarmin) $4.26 6.09 coins $536 766 coins 125.8x 2026-11-05 17:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $4.26 6.09 coins $536 766 coins 125.8x 2026-11-04 18:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $4.26 6.09 coins $536 766 coins 125.8x 2026-11-04 03:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $4.26 6.09 coins $536 766 coins 125.8x 2026-11-04 00:24 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) [carlos.kugelman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/carlos.kugelman) $4.26 6.09 coins $536 766 coins 125.8x 2026-11-03 09:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $4.20 6 coins $509 727 coins 121.2x 2026-11-10 23:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) [BlaZee94TV](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BlaZee94TV) $4.20 6 coins $509 727 coins 121.2x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=5percent-knife) [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) [pimpinainteasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/pimpinainteasy) $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) [H8STEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/H8STEN) $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.20 6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.20 | 90.84% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.23 | 90.94% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.26 | 90.85% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% consumer 95.0% best hit $939 (220.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.84 on average: an expected loss of $9.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt