--- title: "5% Lore case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Lore ($9.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 8 items with odds, observed 91.17% over 43.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore rendered: 2026-11-11T15:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [5% Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 5% Lore A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore?window=all) Price · $9.87 · 14.1 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $8.98 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.17% · 43.8K openings, odds method Variance · 51.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 36 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.67% ±21.57 4,246 openings 7 days · 90.86% ±7.22 37.1K openings 30 days · 91.17% ±6.64 43.8K openings since tracking started · 91.17% ±6.64 43.8K openings 63.5% 85.8% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore?window=24h) | 4,246 | 85.67% ±21.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore?window=7d) | 37.1K | 90.86% ±7.22 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore) | 43.8K | 91.17% ±6.64 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/5percent-lore?window=all) | 43.8K | 91.17% ±6.64 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 6.3% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $738 1,054 coins | 4.1% | 21 | 21.9 | 0.96× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $414 591 coins | 9.2% | 73 | 87.6 | 0.83× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $390 557 coins | 8.7% | 92 | 87.6 | 1.05× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $207 295 coins | 11.5% | 228 | 219.0 | 1.04× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $148 211 coins | 30.4% | 820 | 810.4 | 1.01× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $121 173 coins | 29.5% | 956 | 959.3 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 41,608 | 41612.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [IO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/IO) $10.12 14.46 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 561.9x 2026-11-08 07:46 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [Boy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Boy) $10.12 14.46 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 561.9x 2026-11-07 22:17 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $10.12 14.46 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 561.9x 2026-11-06 04:48 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [BlackSobeka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BlackSobeka) $10.12 14.46 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 561.9x 2026-11-03 19:53 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [stickan74](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/stickan74) $10.12 14.46 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 561.9x 2026-11-03 06:08 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $738 1,054 coins 74.75x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $738 1,054 coins 74.75x 2026-11-11 02:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) [trae](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/trae) $9.87 14.1 coins $738 1,054 coins 74.75x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $738 1,054 coins 74.75x 2026-11-10 12:25 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $738 1,054 coins 74.75x 2026-11-09 02:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=5percent-lore) [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $121 173 coins 12.27x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $121 173 coins 12.27x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [galtjavel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/galtjavel) $9.87 14.1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [galtjavel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/galtjavel) $9.87 14.1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $9.87 14.1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.87 | 90.93% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.12 | 90.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% consumer 95.0% best hit $5,688 (561.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt