---
title: "70% AK case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "70% AK ($71.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 91.92% over 240 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [70% AK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 70% AK

A case on CSGORoll (rifles, 70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak?window=all)

Price · $71.65 · 102 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $65.13 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.92% · 240 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 21 openings · below min

7 days · 87.35% ±17.67 198 openings

30 days · 91.92% ±16.05 240 openings

since tracking started · 91.92% ±16.05 240 openings

-0.5% 54.3% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak?window=24h) | 21 | 54.28% ±54.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak?window=7d) | 198 | 87.35% ±17.7 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak) | 240 | 91.92% ±16.1 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-ak?window=all) | 240 | 91.92% ±16.1 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,842 4,060 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,000 1,428 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $947 1,353 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $701 1,001 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $360 514 coins | 4.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $304 434 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $284 406 coins | 19.6% | 16 | 10.8 | 1.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $263 375 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $118 168 coins | 9.0% | 8 | 12.0 | 0.67× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $114 163 coins | 12.3% | 9 | 16.8 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $107 153 coins | 9.9% | 13 | 14.4 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $93.80 134 coins | 10.1% | 23 | 16.8 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $85.40 122 coins | 7.2% | 12 | 13.2 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $43.88 62.69 coins | 7.4% | 24 | 26.4 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 12.4% | $30.32 43.32 coins | 5.8% | 28 | 29.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $24.53 35.05 coins | 3.4% | 18 | 21.6 | 0.83× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 83 | 72.0 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $70.52 101 coins $926 1,323 coins 13.13x 2026-11-06 12:39 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=70percent-ak)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $71.65 102 coins $30.32 43.32 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $71.65 102 coins $24.53 35.05 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $71.65 102 coins $24.53 35.05 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) [Adsento](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Adsento) $71.65 102 coins $43.88 62.69 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $71.65 102 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $71.65 102 coins $85.40 122 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) Hidden $71.65 102 coins $93.80 134 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 01:52 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $71.65 102 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:10 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $71.65 102 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $71.65 102 coins $24.53 35.05 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 01:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.65 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $71.67 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $70.52 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 37.3% classified 23.7% mil spec 9.0% consumer 30.0% best hit $926 (13.13x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt