--- title: "70% Awp case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "70% Awp ($31.02) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 8 items with odds, observed 88.82% over 1,196 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp rendered: 2026-11-11T19:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [70% Awp](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 70% Awp A case on CSGORoll (awp, 70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp?window=all) Price · $31.02 · 44.32 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $28.20 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.82% · 1,196 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 30.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 63 openings · below min 7 days · 88.98% ±4.20 1,095 openings 30 days · 88.82% ±4.02 1,196 openings since tracking started · 88.82% ±4.02 1,196 openings 84.0% 105.3% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp?window=24h) | 63 | 108.18% ±17.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp?window=7d) | 1,095 | 88.98% ±4.20 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp) | 1,196 | 88.82% ±4.02 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-awp?window=all) | 1,196 | 88.82% ±4.02 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,196 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $122 175 coins | 3.0% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $121 173 coins | 2.1% | 9 | 6.0 | 1.51× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $76.30 109 coins | 8.7% | 39 | 38.3 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $48.33 69.05 coins | 13.7% | 97 | 95.7 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $42.24 60.34 coins | 7.2% | 48 | 57.4 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 12.0% | $40.04 57.2 coins | 17.0% | 137 | 143.5 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 40.8% | $33.31 47.59 coins | 48.2% | 472 | 488.0 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 386 | 358.8 | 1.08× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=70percent-awp) [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $31.02 44.32 coins $40.04 57.2 coins 1.29x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $31.02 44.32 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $31.02 44.32 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $31.02 44.32 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $31.02 44.32 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $31.02 44.32 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $31.02 44.32 coins $48.33 69.05 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $31.02 44.32 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $31.02 44.32 coins $40.04 57.2 coins 1.29x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $31.02 44.32 coins $76.30 109 coins 2.46x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $31.02 | 90.90% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $31.02 | 90.92% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.32 | 90.91% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.25 | 90.90% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 29.2% classified 40.8% consumer 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt