--- title: "70% Knife case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "70% Knife ($56.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 8 items with odds, observed 87.79% over 442 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T17:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [70% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · 70% Knife A case on CSGORoll (knives, 70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife?window=all) Price · $56.54 · 80.77 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $51.40 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.79% · 442 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 30.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 53 openings · below min 7 days · 88.48% ±7.85 370 openings 30 days · 87.79% ±7.18 442 openings since tracking started · 87.79% ±7.18 442 openings 60.5% 81.8% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife?window=24h) | 53 | 81.80% ±20.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife?window=7d) | 370 | 88.48% ±7.85 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife) | 442 | 87.79% ±7.18 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/70percent-knife?window=all) | 442 | 87.79% ±7.18 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 442 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $334 477 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $155 221 coins | 15.0% | 23 | 22.1 | 1.04× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $111 158 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $75.60 108 coins | 22.1% | 68 | 66.3 | 1.03× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $72.10 103 coins | 7.0% | 32 | 22.1 | 1.45× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $65.39 93.41 coins | 13.4% | 41 | 46.4 | 0.88× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 33.0% | $57.81 82.58 coins | 37.1% | 140 | 145.9 | 0.96× | | [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 137 | 132.6 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=70percent-knife) [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $56.54 80.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $56.54 80.77 coins $72.10 103 coins 1.28x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) [Pvpbotx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pvpbotx) $56.54 80.77 coins $65.39 93.41 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $56.54 80.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $56.54 80.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.54 80.77 coins $57.81 82.58 coins 1.02x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.54 80.77 coins $75.60 108 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.54 80.77 coins $75.60 108 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.54 80.77 coins $57.81 82.58 coins 1.02x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $56.54 80.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $56.54 | 90.91% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $57.33 | 90.91% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.41 | 90.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 70.0% consumer 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt