--- title: "Abstract case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Abstract ($13.20) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.62% over 2,463 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Abstract](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Abstract A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract?window=all) Price · $13.20 · 18.85 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $12.00 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.62% · 2,463 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.87% ±26.06 156 openings 7 days · 88.52% ±8.33 1,530 openings 30 days · 89.62% ±6.56 2,463 openings since tracking started · 89.62% ±6.56 2,463 openings 67.0% 93.8% 120.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract?window=24h) | 156 | 93.87% ±26.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract?window=7d) | 1,530 | 88.52% ±8.33 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract) | 2,463 | 89.62% ±6.56 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/abstract?window=all) | 2,463 | 89.62% ±6.56 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,463 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 10.0% | $74.90 107 coins | 62.4% | 243 | 246.3 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $72.80 104 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $42.20 60.28 coins | 2.5% | 14 | 17.2 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $22.79 32.56 coins | 3.8% | 58 | 49.3 | 1.18× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $10.66 15.23 coins | 8.9% | 234 | 246.3 | 0.95× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $10.35 14.78 coins | 4.3% | 120 | 123.2 | 0.97× | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-well-worn) | 12.0% | $5.52 7.89 coins | 5.5% | 305 | 295.6 | 1.03× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 20.0% | $3.94 5.63 coins | 6.6% | 462 | 492.6 | 0.94× | | [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.67 2.39 coins | 2.8% | 497 | 492.6 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Delusion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.83 1.19 coins | 1.4% | 523 | 492.6 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=abstract) [Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $1.67 2.39 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-field-tested) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $0.83 1.19 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-well-worn) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $5.52 7.89 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-well-worn) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $5.52 7.89 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-well-worn) [Heffa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Heffa) $13.20 18.85 coins $5.52 7.89 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $74.90 107 coins 5.68x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $1.67 2.39 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-field-tested) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $0.83 1.19 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-well-worn) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $5.52 7.89 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $13.20 18.85 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $13.20 | 90.91% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.18 | 90.93% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $13.17 | 90.89% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.17 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.15 | 90.92% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% industrial 1.0% violet 2.0% classified 35.0% mil spec 32.0% restricted 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt