--- title: "Acid case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Acid ($8.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 87.71% over 7,012 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Acid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Acid A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid?window=all) Price · $8.28 · 11.83 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $7.53 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.71% · 7,012 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.37% ±12.87 894 openings 7 days · 87.67% ±5.11 5,716 openings 30 days · 87.71% ±4.61 7,012 openings since tracking started · 87.71% ±4.61 7,012 openings 76.0% 89.5% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid?window=24h) | 894 | 89.37% ±12.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid?window=7d) | 5,716 | 87.67% ±5.11 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid) | 7,012 | 87.71% ±4.61 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/acid?window=all) | 7,012 | 87.71% ±4.61 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,030 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $937 1,339 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $174 248 coins | 5.8% | 14 | 17.6 | 0.80× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $30.04 42.91 coins | 35.9% | 650 | 632.7 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $29.41 42.02 coins | 4.9% | 75 | 87.9 | 0.85× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $23.59 33.7 coins | 28.2% | 608 | 632.7 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 10.5% | $11.94 17.05 coins | 16.6% | 723 | 738.1 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 4.2% | 1,411 | 1405.3 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.04 1.48 coins | 2.8% | 1,348 | 1406.0 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.10 0.14 coins | 0.4% | 2,201 | 2109.0 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=acid) [SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $1.04 1.48 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-minimal-wear) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $8.28 11.83 coins $1.04 1.48 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $1.04 1.48 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $30.04 42.91 coins 3.63x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $23.59 33.7 coins 2.85x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $8.28 11.83 coins $30.04 42.91 coins 3.63x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $8.28 11.83 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $11.94 17.05 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $8.28 11.83 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.28 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.51 | 90.88% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.52 | 90.90% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% mil spec 59.0% restricted 10.3% classified 10.5% consumer 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt