---
title: "Advanced Loadout case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Advanced Loadout ($60.12) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 39 items with odds, observed 88.43% over 232 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Advanced Loadout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Advanced Loadout

A case on CSGORoll (hot), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout?window=all)

Price · $60.12 · 85.89 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $54.66 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.43% · 232 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 80 openings · below min

30 days · 88.43% ±11.26 232 openings

since tracking started · 88.43% ±11.26 232 openings

75.5% 95.2% 115.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout?window=7d) | 80 | 95.39% ±19.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout) | 232 | 88.43% ±11.3 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/advanced-loadout?window=all) | 232 | 88.43% ±11.3 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 232 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $512 731 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $356 508 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $266 380 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $235 336 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $226 323 coins | 12.4% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $172 246 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $157 224 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $144 205 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $142 203 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $113 162 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $110 157 coins | 6.0% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $105 150 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $99.40 142 coins | 9.1% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.29× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $93.10 133 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $90.30 129 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $90.30 129 coins | 5.0% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $88.20 126 coins | 4.8% | 3 | 7.0 | 0.43× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $81.90 117 coins | 3.0% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.51× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $81.20 116 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $66.50 95 coins | 3.6% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.15× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $63.09 90.13 coins | 3.5% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.29× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $56.98 81.4 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $53.31 76.15 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $52.51 75.02 coins | 5.8% | 12 | 13.9 | 0.86× |
| [Negev \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $51.32 73.32 coins | 1.9% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.29× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $48.90 69.86 coins | 2.7% | 11 | 7.0 | 1.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $47.66 68.09 coins | 2.6% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $41.94 59.92 coins | 2.3% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.29× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $30.24 43.2 coins | 2.8% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.23 36.05 coins | 1.4% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.29× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $24.49 34.98 coins | 1.3% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $22.48 32.12 coins | 1.2% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $19.99 28.56 coins | 1.1% | 10 | 7.0 | 1.44× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $15.88 22.69 coins | 0.9% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.62 18.03 coins | 1.2% | 8 | 11.6 | 0.69× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.79 15.42 coins | 1.0% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.29× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $9.84 14.06 coins | 0.9% | 10 | 11.6 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.04 10.05 coins | 0.6% | 11 | 11.6 | 0.95× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.56 7.95 coins | 0.6% | 18 | 13.8 | 1.31× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=advanced-loadout)

[★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-field-tested) Hidden $60.12 85.89 coins $53.31 76.15 coins 0.89x 2026-11-09 06:53 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.12 85.89 coins $48.90 69.86 coins 0.81x 2026-11-09 06:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $60.12 85.89 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.26x 2026-11-09 06:53 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [User#815](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23815) $60.12 85.89 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.16x 2026-11-09 06:53 UTC

[M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $60.12 85.89 coins $5.56 7.95 coins 0.09x 2026-11-08 23:45 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $60.12 85.89 coins $19.99 28.56 coins 0.33x 2026-11-08 23:45 UTC

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.12 85.89 coins $30.24 43.2 coins 0.50x 2026-11-08 23:45 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.12 85.89 coins $99.40 142 coins 1.65x 2026-11-08 23:45 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $60.12 85.89 coins $25.23 36.05 coins 0.42x 2026-11-08 23:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $60.12 85.89 coins $113 162 coins 1.89x 2026-11-08 23:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $60.12 | 90.91% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $60.65 | 90.91% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $61.11 | 90.91% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 31.1% restricted 22.9% extraordinary 2.0% mil spec 4.0% classified 38.0% industrial 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt