--- title: "Afterglow case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Afterglow ($85.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 78.79% over 31 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow rendered: 2026-11-11T16:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Afterglow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Afterglow A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow?window=all) Price · $85.68 · 122 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $77.89 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.79% · 31 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 27 openings · below min 30 days · 31 openings · below min since tracking started · 31 openings · below min 42.0% 103.3% 164.5% **Small sample.** 31 openings and 9.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow?window=24h) | 6 | 103.17% ±60.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow?window=7d) | 27 | 77.48% ±28.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow) | 31 | 78.79% ±26.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/afterglow?window=all) | 31 | 78.79% ±26.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $816 1,166 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $348 497 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $239 341 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $188 268 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $146 209 coins | 18.8% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $128 183 coins | 8.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.94× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $111 159 coins | 15.5% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.49× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $68.73 98.18 coins | 8.8% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 15.0% | $64.01 91.44 coins | 12.3% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 15.0% | $57.46 82.08 coins | 11.1% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.29× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $39.63 56.61 coins | 5.1% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $10.56 15.09 coins | 2.4% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.90× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=afterglow) [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.68 122 coins $146 209 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.68 122 coins $111 159 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.68 122 coins $111 159 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.68 122 coins $10.56 15.09 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.68 122 coins $111 159 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $85.68 122 coins $39.63 56.61 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.68 122 coins $68.73 98.18 coins 0.80x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $85.68 122 coins $64.01 91.44 coins 0.75x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) [✪Tiketas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AATiketas) $85.68 122 coins $64.01 91.44 coins 0.75x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $85.74 122 coins $57.77 82.53 coins 0.67x 2026-11-08 17:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $85.68 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $85.74 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $85.98 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% covert 69.0% classified 21.0% mil spec 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt