---
title: "Aiden case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Aiden ($97.72) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 78.22% over 545 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Aiden](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Aiden

A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden?window=all)

Price · $97.72 · 140 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $88.84 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.22% · 545 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 50 openings · below min

7 days · 78.21% ±11.31 466 openings

30 days · 78.22% ±10.46 545 openings

since tracking started · 78.22% ±10.46 545 openings

43.0% 78.3% 113.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (67.75% – 88.68%, 545 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden?window=24h) | 50 | 78.19% ±34.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden?window=7d) | 466 | 78.21% ±11.3 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden) | 545 | 78.22% ±10.5 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aiden?window=all) | 545 | 78.22% ±10.5 | −2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 545 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,946 7,065 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,544 2,206 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,051 1,502 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,033 1,475 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $595 850 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $563 804 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $467 667 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 111 | $460 657 coins | 4.7% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,111 | $454 649 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 154 | $302 432 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.69× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $274 392 coins | 3.1% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $265 378 coins | 7.7% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.92× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $237 339 coins | 21.8% | 31 | 44.5 | 0.70× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 45 | $228 326 coins | 5.7% | 9 | 12.0 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $197 281 coins | 11.1% | 26 | 27.3 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $151 215 coins | 4.2% | 16 | 13.6 | 1.17× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 36 | $105 150 coins | 3.3% | 16 | 15.3 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 15.0% | $91.00 130 coins | 15.4% | 75 | 81.8 | 0.92× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $84.00 120 coins | 2.7% | 14 | 15.8 | 0.89× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 15.0% | $52.51 75.02 coins | 8.9% | 75 | 81.8 | 0.92× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 251 | 218.0 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $98.34 140 coins $1,093 1,561 coins 11.11x 2026-11-05 00:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=aiden)

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $97.72 140 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $97.72 140 coins $52.51 75.02 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $97.72 140 coins $237 339 coins 2.43x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [Klass 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Klass%202) $97.72 140 coins $52.51 75.02 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $97.72 140 coins $237 339 coins 2.43x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $97.72 140 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:36 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Baduci](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Baduci) $97.72 140 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC

[P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $97.72 140 coins $91.00 130 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $97.72 140 coins $237 339 coins 2.43x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $97.72 140 coins $197 281 coins 2.01x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $97.72 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $98.39 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $98.34 | 90.91% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 37.0% legendary 0.1% classified 20.0% extraordinary 2.9% consumer 40.0% best hit $1,093 (11.11x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt