--- title: "Aimless case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Aimless ($90.98) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.10% over 4,731 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Aimless](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Aimless A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless?window=all) Price · $90.98 · 130 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $82.71 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.10% · 4,731 openings, odds method Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.22% ±37.33 255 openings 7 days · 88.31% ±9.06 4,336 openings 30 days · 87.10% ±8.67 4,731 openings since tracking started · 87.10% ±8.67 4,731 openings 61.0% 99.0% 137.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless?window=24h) | 255 | 99.22% ±37.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless?window=7d) | 4,336 | 88.31% ±9.06 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless) | 4,731 | 87.10% ±8.67 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimless?window=all) | 4,731 | 87.10% ±8.67 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,731 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $1,639 2,341 coins | 19.8% | 43 | 47.3 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,384 1,977 coins | 16.7% | 41 | 47.3 | 0.87× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $920 1,315 coins | 11.1% | 48 | 47.3 | 1.01× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $872 1,246 coins | 10.5% | 35 | 47.3 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $795 1,135 coins | 9.6% | 55 | 47.3 | 1.16× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $783 1,119 coins | 9.5% | 55 | 47.3 | 1.16× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $533 762 coins | 6.4% | 45 | 47.3 | 0.95× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $457 653 coins | 5.5% | 52 | 47.3 | 1.10× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $451 644 coins | 5.5% | 43 | 47.3 | 0.91× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $436 623 coins | 5.3% | 44 | 47.3 | 0.93× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,128 | 2129.0 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,142 | 2129.0 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-08 11:58 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-08 09:44 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-07 16:58 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-07 16:42 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-06 06:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-06 02:20 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-06 02:20 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Der beste Uwe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Der%20beste%20Uwe) $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-06 02:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-06 01:58 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $91.78 131 coins $1,665 2,379 coins 18.14x 2026-11-06 01:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=aimless) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $90.98 130 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $90.98 130 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) Hidden $90.98 130 coins $920 1,315 coins 10.12x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $90.98 130 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $90.98 130 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Falken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Falken) $90.98 130 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $90.98 130 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $90.98 130 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $90.98 130 coins $783 1,119 coins 8.61x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $90.98 130 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $90.98 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $91.78 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% legendary 1.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $1,665 (18.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt