--- title: "Aimlock case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Aimlock ($49.33) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 92.56% over 103 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Aimlock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Aimlock A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock?window=all) Price · $49.33 · 70.47 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $44.84 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.56% · 103 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 92.56% ±14.67 103 openings since tracking started · 92.56% ±14.67 103 openings 61.0% 122.5% 184.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock?window=24h) | 6 | 122.39% ±60.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock?window=7d) | 22 | 115.00% ±31.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock) | 103 | 92.56% ±14.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aimlock?window=all) | 103 | 92.56% ±14.7 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 103 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $148 211 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $111 159 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $110 157 coins | 19.6% | 3 | 8.2 | 0.36× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 10.0% | $109 156 coins | 24.4% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $88.20 126 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $77.70 111 coins | 12.1% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $60.41 86.3 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.62× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $43.88 62.69 coins | 2.9% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $41.94 59.92 coins | 6.5% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 20.0% | $29.03 41.47 coins | 12.9% | 20 | 20.6 | 0.97× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) | 10.0% | $18.20 26 coins | 4.1% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 10.0% | $15.79 22.56 coins | 3.5% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $9.53 13.62 coins | 4.3% | 20 | 20.6 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=aimlock) [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $49.33 70.47 coins $18.20 26 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $49.33 70.47 coins $18.20 26 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) Hidden $49.33 70.47 coins $29.03 41.47 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.33 70.47 coins $77.70 111 coins 1.58x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $49.33 70.47 coins $110 157 coins 2.23x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [oshri412](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/oshri412) $49.33 70.47 coins $109 156 coins 2.21x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $49.33 70.47 coins $109 156 coins 2.21x 2026-11-10 06:48 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $49.33 70.47 coins $60.41 86.3 coins 1.22x 2026-11-10 06:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $49.33 70.47 coins $109 156 coins 2.21x 2026-11-10 06:48 UTC [M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) [zZz Destro smacks^IB](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/zZz%20Destro%20smacks%5EIB) $49.33 70.47 coins $77.70 111 coins 1.58x 2026-11-10 06:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $49.33 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $49.88 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.19 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.0% classified 40.0% mil spec 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt