---
title: "AK-47 case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AK-47 ($32.35) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 28 items with odds, observed 91.56% over 5,461 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [AK-47](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · AK-47

A case on CSGORoll (rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47?window=all)

Price · $32.35 · 46.22 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $29.41 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.56% · 5,461 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.21% ±21.03 683 openings

7 days · 90.32% ±8.65 4,185 openings

30 days · 91.56% ±7.60 5,461 openings

since tracking started · 91.56% ±7.60 5,461 openings

58.5% 80.3% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47?window=24h) | 683 | 80.21% ±21.0 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47?window=7d) | 4,185 | 90.32% ±8.65 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47) | 5,461 | 91.56% ±7.60 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ak-47?window=all) | 5,461 | 91.56% ±7.60 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,503 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,213 4,590 coins | 5.5% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $701 1,001 coins | 2.6% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $634 905 coins | 1.9% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $304 434 coins | 9.3% | 51 | 49.5 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $207 296 coins | 1.4% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $189 270 coins | 6.4% | 60 | 55.0 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $174 248 coins | 1.8% | 13 | 16.5 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $172 245 coins | 5.2% | 46 | 49.5 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $169 242 coins | 3.5% | 32 | 33.0 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $142 203 coins | 2.9% | 28 | 33.0 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $142 203 coins | 7.2% | 80 | 82.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $126 180 coins | 1.7% | 22 | 22.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $118 169 coins | 3.2% | 38 | 44.0 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $88.20 126 coins | 4.5% | 76 | 82.5 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $78.40 112 coins | 6.7% | 133 | 137.6 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $52.27 74.67 coins | 2.7% | 76 | 82.5 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $51.61 73.73 coins | 10.5% | 338 | 330.2 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $48.87 69.82 coins | 2.5% | 89 | 82.5 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $34.52 49.31 coins | 4.7% | 219 | 220.1 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $27.04 38.63 coins | 4.1% | 269 | 247.6 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $19.36 27.66 coins | 3.9% | 304 | 330.2 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $19.12 27.31 coins | 1.6% | 140 | 137.6 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.93 14.19 coins | 1.4% | 209 | 220.1 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.99 9.99 coins | 1.7% | 386 | 385.2 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 12.0% | $4.74 6.77 coins | 1.9% | 623 | 660.4 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $1.71 2.44 coins | 0.7% | 647 | 660.4 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.72 1.03 coins | 0.3% | 712 | 660.4 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 15.6% | $0.20 0.28 coins | 0.1% | 888 | 855.7 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $3,353 4,790 coins 102.8x 2026-11-06 16:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $3,353 4,790 coins 102.8x 2026-11-05 07:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $3,353 4,790 coins 102.8x 2026-11-04 12:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $3,213 4,590 coins 99.31x 2026-11-09 12:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $757 1,081 coins 23.19x 2026-11-05 21:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $757 1,081 coins 23.19x 2026-11-05 17:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $757 1,081 coins 23.19x 2026-11-05 17:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $757 1,081 coins 23.19x 2026-11-05 09:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $757 1,081 coins 23.19x 2026-11-03 17:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $32.63 46.61 coins $641 916 coins 19.65x 2026-11-05 21:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ak-47)

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $6.99 9.99 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $4.74 6.77 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $27.04 38.63 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $32.35 46.22 coins $34.52 49.31 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $1.71 2.44 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $27.04 38.63 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $32.35 46.22 coins $19.36 27.66 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $1.71 2.44 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.35 46.22 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $32.35 | 90.91% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $32.35 | 90.91% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $32.35 | 90.92% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $32.36 | 90.90% | 28 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.63 | 90.91% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 14.1% covert 6.5% restricted 21.4% industrial 35.1% mil spec 23.0% best hit $3,353 (102.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt