--- title: "Alchemy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Alchemy ($33.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 83.71% over 1,910 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Alchemy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Alchemy A case on CSGORoll (knives, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy?window=all) Price · $33.07 · 47.25 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $30.07 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.71% · 1,910 openings, odds method Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 128 openings · below min 7 days · 83.47% ±13.50 1,662 openings 30 days · 83.71% ±12.61 1,910 openings since tracking started · 83.71% ±12.61 1,910 openings 38.5% 87.3% 136.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy?window=24h) | 128 | 87.25% ±48.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy?window=7d) | 1,662 | 83.47% ±13.5 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy) | 1,910 | 83.71% ±12.6 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alchemy?window=all) | 1,910 | 83.71% ±12.6 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,910 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,257 1,796 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,121 1,602 coins | 7.5% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $935 1,336 coins | 1.6% | 4 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $415 593 coins | 27.6% | 39 | 38.2 | 1.02× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $337 482 coins | 11.2% | 10 | 19.1 | 0.52× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $274 392 coins | 4.6% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $148 211 coins | 9.8% | 31 | 38.2 | 0.81× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 33 | $106 152 coins | 10.6% | 65 | 57.3 | 1.13× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $86.80 124 coins | 9.4% | 59 | 62.0 | 0.95× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $65.83 94.04 coins | 17.5% | 141 | 152.8 | 0.92× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 799 | 764.0 | 1.05× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 752 | 764.0 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) [palt .hallcase.org](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/palt%20.hallcase.org) $32.45 46.35 coins $1,121 1,602 coins 34.56x 2026-11-05 17:47 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [zombieking388](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/zombieking388) $33.07 47.25 coins $935 1,336 coins 28.28x 2026-11-10 10:38 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins $935 1,336 coins 28.28x 2026-11-09 19:51 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins $935 1,336 coins 28.28x 2026-11-09 00:21 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $32.45 46.35 coins $935 1,336 coins 28.82x 2026-11-03 19:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=alchemy) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $33.07 47.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins $337 482 coins 10.20x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $33.07 47.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $33.07 47.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $33.07 47.25 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $33.07 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $32.47 | 90.90% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.45 | 90.90% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% extraordinary 0.0% consumer 80.0% best hit $1,121 (34.56x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt