--- title: "Alien case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Alien ($1,099.72) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 85.45% over 26 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Alien](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Alien A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien?window=all) Price · $1,099.72 · 1,571 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $999.75 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.45% · 26 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 26 openings · below min since tracking started · 26 openings · below min -0.5% 114.5% 229.5% **Small sample.** 26 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien?window=24h) | 4 | 86.73% ±142.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien?window=7d) | 26 | 85.45% ±57.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien) | 26 | 85.45% ±57.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/alien?window=all) | 26 | 85.45% ±57.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.9K 17,000 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $7,294 10,420 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $6,643 9,490 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2,842 4,060 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 33 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 7.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 67 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 9.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 25 | $1,059 1,513 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $971 1,387 coins | 19.4% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $937 1,339 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-minimal-wear) | 21.5% | $546 780 coins | 11.7% | 1 | 5.6 | 0.18× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 33.0% | $115 164 coins | 3.8% | 15 | 8.6 | 1.75× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $6,664 9,520 coins 6.29x 2026-11-06 23:43 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $2,867 4,095 coins 2.71x 2026-11-06 23:43 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $1,100 1,571 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 2.38x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $1,060 1,514 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 2.47x 2026-11-06 23:46 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 1.39x 2026-11-06 23:51 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 1.39x 2026-11-06 23:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $1,056 1,508 coins 1.00x 2026-11-06 23:43 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,100 1,571 coins $971 1,387 coins 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) [Zangetsu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zangetsu) $1,060 1,514 coins $862 1,231 coins 0.81x 2026-11-08 12:35 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $862 1,231 coins 0.81x 2026-11-06 23:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=alien) [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,100 1,571 coins $115 164 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $1,100 1,571 coins $2,615 3,735 coins 2.38x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,100 1,571 coins $971 1,387 coins 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $1,100 1,571 coins $115 164 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) [Zangetsu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zangetsu) $1,060 1,514 coins $862 1,231 coins 0.81x 2026-11-08 12:35 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 1.39x 2026-11-06 23:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $115 164 coins 0.11x 2026-11-06 23:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $115 164 coins 0.11x 2026-11-06 23:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $1,060 1,514 coins $115 164 coins 0.11x 2026-11-06 23:51 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,060 1,514 coins $862 1,231 coins 0.81x 2026-11-06 23:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,100 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,060 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.5% legendary 8.0% extraordinary 41.5% best hit $6,664 (6.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt