--- title: "Amphibian case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Amphibian ($29.62) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 88.44% over 309 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Amphibian](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Amphibian A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian?window=all) Price · $29.62 · 42.31 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $26.92 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.44% · 309 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 43.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 52.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 85.49% ±10.89 179 openings 30 days · 88.44% ±8.34 309 openings since tracking started · 88.44% ±8.34 309 openings 33.5% 67.8% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian?window=24h) | 18 | 67.70% ±33.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian?window=7d) | 179 | 85.49% ±10.9 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian) | 309 | 88.44% ±8.34 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/amphibian?window=all) | 309 | 88.44% ±8.34 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 309 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Patch \| Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) | 1 in 1,000 | $294 420 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $110 157 coins | 4.1% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $104 148 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $85.40 122 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $80.50 115 coins | 4.5% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $53.33 76.19 coins | 9.9% | 20 | 15.4 | 1.29× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $51.64 73.77 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $49.99 71.42 coins | 2.8% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 33.0% | $36.08 51.55 coins | 44.2% | 95 | 102.0 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $32.17 45.95 coins | 4.8% | 17 | 12.4 | 1.38× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $27.62 39.45 coins | 2.1% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.46× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $22.16 31.66 coins | 4.9% | 8 | 18.5 | 0.43× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 20.0% | $21.48 30.69 coins | 16.0% | 70 | 61.8 | 1.13× | | [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.28 4.68 coins | 0.4% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-well-worn) | 21.5% | $1.56 2.23 coins | 1.2% | 69 | 66.4 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=amphibian) [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) Hidden $29.62 42.31 coins $22.16 31.66 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) Hidden $29.62 42.31 coins $21.48 30.69 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) Hidden $29.62 42.31 coins $21.48 30.69 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $29.62 42.31 coins $21.48 30.69 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-well-worn) Hidden $29.62 42.31 coins $1.56 2.23 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-well-worn) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $29.62 42.31 coins $1.56 2.23 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.62 42.31 coins $36.08 51.55 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.62 42.31 coins $36.08 51.55 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.62 42.31 coins $36.08 51.55 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.62 42.31 coins $36.08 51.55 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 05:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.62 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.43 | 90.90% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.46 | 90.90% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed exotic 0.1% restricted 7.0% covert 44.4% extraordinary 0.5% industrial 1.5% classified 22.0% rare 3.0% uncommon 21.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt