--- title: "Antique case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Antique ($85.20) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 26 items with odds, observed 62.44% over 25 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Antique](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Antique A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique?window=all) Price · $85.20 · 122 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $77.46 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 62.44% · 25 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 25 openings · below min since tracking started · 25 openings · below min -0.5% 65.0% 130.5% **Small sample.** 25 openings and 8.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique?window=7d) | 18 | 62.59% ±67.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique) | 25 | 62.44% ±56.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/antique?window=all) | 25 | 62.44% ±56.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,336 10,480 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,817 8,310 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,815 5,450 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,132 3,045 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,000 1,428 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $931 1,330 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 500 | $923 1,318 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $542 774 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $473 676 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 455 | $307 438 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $303 433 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 286 | $284 406 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $181 258 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $172 246 coins | 10.0% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.78× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $158 226 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $127 182 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $112 160 coins | 11.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $108 154 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 12.0% | $105 150 coins | 16.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $98.70 141 coins | 19.1% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.53× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $81.90 117 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $66.04 94.35 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $38.99 55.7 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $25.23 36.05 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.60× | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) | 19.7% | $8.77 12.53 coins | 2.2% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.83× | | [Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $6.00 8.57 coins | 1.4% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=antique) [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) Hidden $87.41 125 coins $9.06 12.94 coins 0.10x 2026-11-08 04:23 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-battle-scarred) Hidden $87.41 125 coins $65.37 93.38 coins 0.75x 2026-11-08 04:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $87.41 125 coins $104 149 coins 1.19x 2026-11-08 04:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) [Ridwan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ridwan) $87.41 125 coins $9.06 12.94 coins 0.10x 2026-11-08 04:23 UTC [Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-battle-scarred) Hidden $87.41 125 coins $6.02 8.6 coins 0.07x 2026-11-06 16:50 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) Hidden $87.41 125 coins $112 160 coins 1.28x 2026-11-06 16:50 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $87.41 125 coins $29.85 42.65 coins 0.34x 2026-11-06 16:50 UTC [PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-factory-new) [⍟ Xiro ⍟](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%8D%9F%20Xiro%20%E2%8D%9F) $87.41 125 coins $9.06 12.94 coins 0.10x 2026-11-06 16:50 UTC [Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-battle-scarred) Hidden $87.41 125 coins $6.02 8.6 coins 0.07x 2026-11-05 17:02 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) Hidden $87.41 125 coins $40.54 57.91 coins 0.46x 2026-11-05 17:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $85.20 | 90.91% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $85.21 | 90.91% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $86.10 | 90.91% | 26 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $87.41 | 90.91% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $87.79 | 90.91% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 35.0% extraordinary 5.4% classified 20.0% restricted 21.6% industrial 18.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt