---
title: "Apocalypse case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Apocalypse ($4.49) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 22 items with odds, observed 89.12% over 9,282 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Apocalypse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Apocalypse

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse?window=all)

Price · $4.49 · 6.41 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $4.08 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.12% · 9,282 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.91% ±13.34 1,074 openings

7 days · 89.00% ±4.93 7,943 openings

30 days · 89.12% ±4.57 9,282 openings

since tracking started · 89.12% ±4.57 9,282 openings

72.0% 86.0% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse?window=24h) | 1,074 | 85.91% ±13.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse?window=7d) | 7,943 | 89.00% ±4.93 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse) | 9,282 | 89.12% ±4.57 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/apocalypse?window=all) | 9,282 | 89.12% ±4.57 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,282 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $114 163 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $113 161 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $94.50 135 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $81.20 116 coins | 7.0% | 34 | 32.5 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $68.77 98.25 coins | 8.4% | 44 | 46.4 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $64.79 92.56 coins | 3.2% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $50.64 72.34 coins | 9.9% | 73 | 74.3 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 9.7% | 84 | 92.8 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $21.01 30.01 coins | 7.7% | 128 | 139.2 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $12.27 17.53 coins | 6.0% | 189 | 185.6 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $11.32 16.17 coins | 6.9% | 247 | 232.1 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $9.30 13.29 coins | 6.2% | 267 | 250.6 | 1.07× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $5.99 8.55 coins | 4.4% | 276 | 278.5 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $5.01 7.15 coins | 4.3% | 300 | 324.9 | 0.92× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.37 4.81 coins | 3.3% | 394 | 371.3 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $2.16 3.09 coins | 5.3% | 930 | 928.2 | 1.00× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.10 3 coins | 2.3% | 410 | 417.7 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.95 2.78 coins | 2.4% | 472 | 464.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 12.4% | $1.43 2.04 coins | 4.3% | 1,166 | 1150.0 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.87 1.24 coins | 3.0% | 1,300 | 1299.5 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.66 0.94 coins | 2.4% | 1,361 | 1392.3 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.41 0.58 coins | 1.7% | 1,586 | 1577.9 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=apocalypse)

[PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.49 6.41 coins $0.87 1.24 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.49 6.41 coins $3.37 4.81 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) Hidden $4.49 6.41 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) [furis med snoken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/furis%20med%20snoken) $4.49 6.41 coins $0.87 1.24 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.49 6.41 coins $12.27 17.53 coins 2.73x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $4.49 6.41 coins $21.01 30.01 coins 4.68x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.49 6.41 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $4.49 6.41 coins $0.87 1.24 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.49 6.41 coins $0.87 1.24 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) Hidden $4.49 6.41 coins $0.41 0.58 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $4.49 | 90.95% | 22 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.49 | 90.97% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.49 | 90.87% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $4.49 | 90.96% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.49 | 90.89% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.45 | 90.86% | 22 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.45 | 90.93% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.45 | 90.86% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $4.45 | 90.88% | 22 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.44 | 90.97% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.46 | 90.86% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 5.0% classified 15.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 2.9% restricted 25.7% mil spec 51.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt