---
title: "Arabian Nights case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Arabian Nights ($15.22) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 94.23% over 2,361 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Arabian Nights](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Arabian Nights

A case on CSGORoll (knives, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights?window=all)

Price · $15.22 · 21.74 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $13.83 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.23% · 2,361 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.14% ±26.09 249 openings

7 days · 91.76% ±9.31 2,013 openings

30 days · 94.23% ±8.61 2,361 openings

since tracking started · 94.23% ±8.61 2,361 openings

54.5% 81.3% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights?window=24h) | 249 | 81.14% ±26.1 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights?window=7d) | 2,013 | 91.76% ±9.31 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights) | 2,361 | 94.23% ±8.61 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arabian-nights?window=all) | 2,361 | 94.23% ±8.61 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,361 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $963 1,376 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $416 594 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $190 271 coins | 11.7% | 23 | 20.1 | 1.15× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $145 207 coins | 15.7% | 38 | 35.4 | 1.07× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $106 152 coins | 7.7% | 26 | 23.6 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $31.82 45.45 coins | 6.9% | 70 | 70.8 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $24.84 35.48 coins | 3.6% | 43 | 47.2 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-factory-new) | 10.0% | $16.31 23.3 coins | 11.8% | 198 | 236.1 | 0.84× |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 16.0% | $16.30 23.29 coins | 18.9% | 388 | 377.8 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $9.34 13.34 coins | 6.7% | 241 | 236.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 30.0% | $4.26 6.09 coins | 9.2% | 686 | 708.3 | 0.97× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 10.5% | $2.51 3.58 coins | 1.9% | 263 | 247.7 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.66 0.94 coins | 0.7% | 381 | 354.2 | 1.08× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) Hidden $15.43 22.04 coins $985 1,407 coins 63.84x 2026-11-03 16:43 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=arabian-nights)

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) Hidden $15.22 21.74 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) Hidden $15.22 21.74 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) [Койстинен](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD) $15.22 21.74 coins $4.26 6.09 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) Hidden $15.22 21.74 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) [hieschdavid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hieschdavid) $15.22 21.74 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.22 21.74 coins $9.34 13.34 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) Hidden $15.22 21.74 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) Hidden $15.22 21.74 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) Hidden $15.22 21.74 coins $0.66 0.94 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) [hieschdavid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hieschdavid) $15.22 21.74 coins $24.84 35.48 coins 1.63x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $15.22 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.22 | 90.89% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.23 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.43 | 90.92% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.9% extraordinary 0.1% classified 22.0% rare 2.0% restricted 56.0% uncommon 15.0% best hit $985 (63.84x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt