---
title: "Armed case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Armed ($26.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 47 items with odds, observed 96.03% over 563 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Armed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Armed

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed?window=all)

Price · $26.68 · 38.11 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $24.25 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.03% · 563 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 37 openings · below min

7 days · 99.12% ±16.62 467 openings

30 days · 96.03% ±15.12 563 openings

since tracking started · 96.03% ±15.12 563 openings

6.5% 66.8% 127.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed?window=24h) | 37 | 66.81% ±59.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed?window=7d) | 467 | 99.12% ±16.6 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed) | 563 | 96.03% ±15.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armed?window=all) | 563 | 96.03% ±15.1 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 563 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,466 6,380 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,688 2,411 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,548 2,211 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $1,445 2,064 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $1,221 1,744 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $867 1,238 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $844 1,205 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $687 981 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $588 840 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $564 806 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $454 648 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $435 621 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $370 528 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $251 359 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $237 338 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $199 284 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 286 | $170 243 coins | 2.5% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $165 235 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $147 210 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.39× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $123 176 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $105 150 coins | 2.8% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $98.00 140 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $98.00 140 coins | 3.0% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $96.60 138 coins | 4.8% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.48× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $83.30 119 coins | 4.6% | 11 | 7.6 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-victoria-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $77.70 111 coins | 4.8% | 15 | 8.4 | 1.78× |
| [SSG 08 \| Lichen Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-lichen-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $69.26 98.94 coins | 6.3% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.21× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $64.01 91.44 coins | 1.5% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.94× |
| [Primeiro Tenente \| Brazilian 1st Battalion agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/primeiro-tenente-brazilian-1st-battalion) | 1 in 37 | $58.23 83.18 coins | 6.5% | 22 | 15.2 | 1.45× |
| [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $56.76 81.09 coins | 7.0% | 9 | 16.9 | 0.53× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $54.82 78.31 coins | 3.6% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [Negev \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $51.32 73.32 coins | 5.1% | 9 | 13.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $49.95 71.36 coins | 3.7% | 17 | 10.1 | 1.68× |
| [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $29.50 42.15 coins | 3.9% | 14 | 18.0 | 0.78× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $22.94 32.77 coins | 3.3% | 18 | 19.7 | 0.91× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $16.60 23.71 coins | 1.4% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.80× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $11.58 16.55 coins | 2.4% | 30 | 28.2 | 1.07× |
| [Lieutenant 'Tree Hugger' Farlow \| SWAT agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/lieutenant-tree-hugger-farlow-swat) | 1 in 27 | $10.64 15.2 coins | 1.6% | 13 | 20.8 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $10.15 14.5 coins | 1.7% | 21 | 22.5 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $8.42 12.03 coins | 1.6% | 28 | 25.3 | 1.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $7.51 10.73 coins | 1.6% | 30 | 29.3 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $4.14 5.92 coins | 0.9% | 29 | 31.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $2.71 3.87 coins | 0.8% | 33 | 37.8 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Scorched (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $1.87 2.67 coins | 0.5% | 36 | 33.8 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $1.83 2.61 coins | 0.5% | 40 | 36.6 | 1.09× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 36 | 39.4 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 77 | 78.8 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=armed)

[P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.68 38.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC

[P250 | Contamination (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-battle-scarred) [Majkel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Majkel) $26.68 38.11 coins $1.83 2.61 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC

[P250 | Contamination (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.68 38.11 coins $1.83 2.61 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC

[MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $26.68 38.11 coins $29.50 42.15 coins 1.11x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC

[P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.68 38.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC

[P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.68 38.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.68 38.11 coins $7.51 10.73 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC

[MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [Majkel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Majkel) $26.68 38.11 coins $29.50 42.15 coins 1.11x 2026-11-10 23:22 UTC

[P90 | Scorched (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-well-worn) Hidden $26.68 38.11 coins $1.87 2.67 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 22:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) [Majkel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Majkel) $26.68 38.11 coins $10.15 14.5 coins 0.38x 2026-11-10 22:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:18 UTC | $26.68 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.68 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $26.68 | 90.92% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.67 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.05 | 90.91% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $27.07 | 90.91% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $27.04 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $27.04 | 90.90% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.05 | 90.91% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 1.3% covert 9.7% restricted 6.6% mil spec 10.4% industrial 22.6% consumer 43.1% distinguished 2.7% exceptional 3.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt