--- title: "Armored case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Armored ($185.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.73% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored rendered: 2026-11-11T15:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Armored](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Armored A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored?window=all) Price · $185.68 · 265 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $168.80 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.73% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 93.0% 186.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored?window=7d) | 4 | 92.71% ±93.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored) | 16 | 88.73% ±46.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/armored?window=all) | 16 | 88.73% ±46.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 200 | $1,387 1,982 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $1,357 1,939 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $561 801 coins | 16.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $532 760 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 40 | $415 593 coins | 6.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| niko (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 25 | $346 494 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $262 374 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 12.7% | $207 296 coins | 15.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $140 200 coins | 5.0% | 3 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $127 181 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 10.0% | $109 156 coins | 6.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $102 145 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $92.40 132 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 10.0% | $65.95 94.22 coins | 3.9% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 10.0% | $57.46 82.08 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 10.0% | $32.22 46.03 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=armored) [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $187 268 coins $109 156 coins 0.58x 2026-11-06 05:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [LongKoala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LongKoala) $187 268 coins $415 593 coins 2.22x 2026-11-06 05:49 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) Hidden $187 268 coins $67.28 96.12 coins 0.36x 2026-11-04 20:24 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $187 268 coins $103 147 coins 0.55x 2026-11-04 20:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $186 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $186 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $187 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.5% covert 68.5% restricted 5.0% extraordinary 16.0% classified 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt