---
title: "Arms Race case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Arms Race ($3.64) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 27 items with odds, observed 91.84% over 40.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Arms Race](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Arms Race

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 25%, awp, rifles, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race?window=all)

Price · $3.64 · 5.2 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $3.31 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.84% · 40.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.96% ±9.13 5,245 openings

7 days · 91.79% ±3.77 32.3K openings

30 days · 91.84% ±3.38 40.5K openings

since tracking started · 91.84% ±3.38 40.5K openings

81.0% 90.8% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race?window=24h) | 5,245 | 90.96% ±9.13 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race?window=7d) | 32.3K | 91.79% ±3.77 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race) | 40.5K | 91.84% ±3.38 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/arms-race?window=all) | 40.5K | 91.84% ±3.38 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $659 942 coins | 2.0% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.48× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · legendary · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $596 852 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $213 304 coins | 6.4% | 46 | 40.6 | 1.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $65.32 93.31 coins | 3.9% | 77 | 81.1 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $25.12 35.88 coins | 6.1% | 352 | 324.6 | 1.08× |
| [Negev \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $16.06 22.94 coins | 4.9% | 457 | 405.7 | 1.13× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $16.00 22.86 coins | 4.8% | 431 | 405.7 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $15.46 22.08 coins | 5.6% | 413 | 486.8 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $12.47 17.82 coins | 5.7% | 732 | 608.5 | 1.20× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $12.41 17.73 coins | 7.5% | 698 | 811.4 | 0.86× |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $11.82 16.88 coins | 7.5% | 820 | 852.0 | 0.96× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $10.01 14.3 coins | 7.3% | 945 | 973.7 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $5.94 8.48 coins | 5.9% | 1,329 | 1338.8 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $5.68 8.12 coins | 6.4% | 1,510 | 1501.1 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $5.44 7.77 coins | 6.6% | 1,577 | 1622.8 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.02 5.74 coins | 5.2% | 1,815 | 1736.4 | 1.05× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.79 3.99 coins | 3.8% | 1,831 | 1825.6 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.68 3.83 coins | 4.0% | 2,037 | 2028.5 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.84 1.2 coins | 1.4% | 2,196 | 2190.8 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.64 0.92 coins | 1.2% | 2,448 | 2434.2 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.57 0.81 coins | 1.0% | 2,431 | 2474.8 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.21 0.3 coins | 0.4% | 2,615 | 2596.5 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.17 0.25 coins | 0.3% | 2,682 | 2677.6 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.06 0.09 coins | 0.1% | 2,919 | 2839.9 | 1.03× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.05 0.07 coins | 0.1% | 3,052 | 3002.2 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 3,567 | 3651.3 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Pine (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 3,582 | 3651.3 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $3.71 5.3 coins $666 951 coins 179.4x 2026-11-07 18:33 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $3.71 5.3 coins $666 951 coins 179.4x 2026-11-05 22:46 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $3.71 5.3 coins $666 951 coins 179.4x 2026-11-04 05:25 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [J.E.J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/J.E.J) $3.71 5.3 coins $666 951 coins 179.4x 2026-11-03 22:23 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $659 942 coins 181.2x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $659 942 coins 181.2x 2026-11-09 16:29 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · legendary · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $3.71 5.3 coins $599 855 coins 161.3x 2026-11-07 06:29 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · legendary · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $3.71 5.3 coins $599 855 coins 161.3x 2026-11-06 16:53 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.71 5.3 coins $254 363 coins 68.49x 2026-11-08 08:55 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.71 5.3 coins $254 363 coins 68.49x 2026-11-08 00:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=arms-race)

[MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $0.57 0.81 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $0.84 1.2 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $5.44 7.77 coins 1.49x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Kisu :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kisu%20%3A%29) $3.64 5.2 coins $0.05 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $5.44 7.77 coins 1.49x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Slippy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Slippy) $3.64 5.2 coins $0.05 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-well-worn) Hidden $3.64 5.2 coins $2.79 3.99 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $3.64 | 90.95% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $3.64 | 90.94% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $3.64 | 90.96% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.64 | 90.94% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.64 | 90.92% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.66 | 90.96% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.71 | 90.90% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $3.71 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.71 | 90.92% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.71 | 90.93% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% restricted 14.0% covert 0.2% Classified 0.8% industrial 17.1% classified 7.9% uncommon 7.2% Mythical 4.3% mil spec 11.1% Rare 6.0% #4b69ff 6.4% #87c7ff 7.0% common 18.0% best hit $666 (179.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt