---
title: "Artefact case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Artefact ($77.66) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 101.80% over 278 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Artefact](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Artefact

A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact?window=all)

Price · $77.66 · 111 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $70.60 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 101.80% · 278 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 9 openings · below min

7 days · 102.63% ±20.44 248 openings

30 days · 101.80% ±19.30 278 openings

since tracking started · 101.80% ±19.30 278 openings

3.5% 111.8% 220.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact?window=24h) | 9 | 111.87% ±107.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact?window=7d) | 248 | 102.63% ±20.4 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact) | 278 | 101.80% ±19.3 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/artefact?window=all) | 278 | 101.80% ±19.3 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,583 2,262 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $603 861 coins | 10.7% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $582 832 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 11 | $335 479 coins | 42.7% | 34 | 25.0 | 1.36× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $218 311 coins | 27.8% | 27 | 25.0 | 1.08× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 10.5% | $111 159 coins | 16.5% | 26 | 29.2 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 79 | 83.4 | 0.95× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 51 | 55.6 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 58 | 55.6 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $77.66 111 coins $603 861 coins 7.76x 2026-11-09 19:14 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [Mivjoh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mivjoh) $77.66 111 coins $603 861 coins 7.76x 2026-11-09 18:58 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) [mickarmement100k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mickarmement100k) $78.71 112 coins $603 861 coins 7.66x 2026-11-05 20:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=artefact)

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $77.66 111 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $77.66 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-well-worn) Hidden $77.66 111 coins $111 159 coins 1.43x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $77.66 111 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $77.66 111 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $77.66 111 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Riggson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Riggson) $77.66 111 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $77.66 111 coins $335 479 coins 4.32x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $77.66 111 coins $335 479 coins 4.32x 2026-11-10 16:56 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $77.66 111 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 09:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $77.66 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $77.66 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $78.71 | 90.91% | 9 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 30.0% consumer 70.0% best hit $603 (7.76x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt