--- title: "Assassin case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Assassin ($23.38) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 11 items with odds, observed 86.74% over 436 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Assassin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Assassin A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin?window=all) Price · $23.38 · 33.4 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $21.26 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.74% · 436 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80 openings · below min 7 days · 84.56% ±13.35 373 openings 30 days · 86.74% ±12.33 436 openings since tracking started · 86.74% ±12.33 436 openings 46.5% 76.3% 106.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin?window=24h) | 80 | 76.13% ±29.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin?window=7d) | 373 | 84.56% ±13.3 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin) | 436 | 86.74% ±12.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/assassin?window=all) | 436 | 86.74% ±12.3 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 436 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $108 154 coins | 10.1% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.57× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $97.30 139 coins | 36.6% | 34 | 34.9 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $94.50 135 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.38× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $85.40 122 coins | 4.0% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $49.41 70.59 coins | 11.6% | 28 | 21.8 | 1.28× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $45.95 65.64 coins | 10.8% | 18 | 21.8 | 0.83× | | [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $27.42 39.17 coins | 6.4% | 14 | 21.8 | 0.64× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $23.86 34.08 coins | 2.2% | 14 | 8.7 | 1.61× | | [Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) | 11.5% | $11.21 16.01 coins | 6.1% | 42 | 50.1 | 0.84× | | [P90 \| Blind Spot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-well-worn) | 20.0% | $6.24 8.91 coins | 5.9% | 96 | 87.2 | 1.10× | | [P250 \| Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $2.09 2.99 coins | 3.9% | 178 | 174.4 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=assassin) [P90 | Blind Spot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-well-worn) Hidden $23.38 33.4 coins $6.24 8.91 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC [P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.38 33.4 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC [P90 | Blind Spot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-well-worn) Hidden $23.38 33.4 coins $6.24 8.91 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC [P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $23.38 33.4 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $23.38 33.4 coins $97.30 139 coins 4.16x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $23.38 33.4 coins $97.30 139 coins 4.16x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC [P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.38 33.4 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:58 UTC [P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) [TubinCuban](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TubinCuban) $23.38 33.4 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:58 UTC [P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.38 33.4 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.38 33.4 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $23.38 | 90.92% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.58 | 90.92% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $23.34 | 90.91% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $23.32 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.42 | 90.90% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% classified 2.5% mil spec 51.0% remarkable 11.5% restricted 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt