--- title: "Atlas case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Atlas ($14,496.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 41.65% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Atlas](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Atlas A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas?window=all) Price · $14,496.29 · 20,709 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $13,178.44 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 41.65% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 104.8% 210.0% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas?window=7d) | 1 | 41.65% ±167.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas) | 1 | 41.65% ±167.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/atlas?window=all) | 1 | 41.65% ±167.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 13 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 32.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 10.0% | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 13.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 10.5% | $13.5K 19,275 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 12.0% | $11.9K 17,000 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $11.5K 16,375 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $9,240 13,200 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8,880 12,685 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 10.0% | $6,808 9,725 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $6,545 9,350 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 12.0% | $5,978 8,540 coins | 5.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5,600 8,000 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $14.6K 20,793 coins $6,062 8,660 coins 0.42x 2026-11-07 02:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=atlas) [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $14.6K 20,793 coins $6,062 8,660 coins 0.42x 2026-11-07 02:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.5K | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.6K | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 28.5% covert 49.5% contraband 12.0% extraordinary 10.0% best hit $6,062 (0.42x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt