--- title: "August case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "August ($15.10) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 87.77% over 37.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [August](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · August A case on CSGORoll (10%, partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august?window=all) Price · $15.10 · 21.57 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $13.73 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.77% · 37.6K openings, odds method Variance · 185.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.86% ±37.07 5,174 openings 7 days · 87.92% ±14.88 31.6K openings 30 days · 87.77% ±13.64 37.6K openings since tracking started · 87.77% ±13.64 37.6K openings 56.0% 93.8% 131.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august?window=24h) | 5,174 | 93.86% ±37.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august?window=7d) | 31.6K | 87.92% ±14.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august) | 37.6K | 87.77% ±13.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/august?window=all) | 37.6K | 87.77% ±13.6 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50,000 | $11.4K 16,295 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,887 12,695 coins | 6.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 2.7% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.20× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,128 | $1,000 1,428 coins | 3.4% | 14 | 17.7 | 0.79× | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $603 862 coins | 6.6% | 42 | 56.5 | 0.74× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $454 648 coins | 3.3% | 34 | 37.6 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $277 396 coins | 14.1% | 275 | 263.5 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $170 243 coins | 18.6% | 582 | 564.7 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $157 224 coins | 5.7% | 165 | 188.2 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $128 183 coins | 9.1% | 368 | 365.2 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $67.54 96.49 coins | 9.8% | 807 | 753.0 | 1.07× | | [Sticker \| malta (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-malta-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 50 | $44.12 63.03 coins | 6.4% | 743 | 753.0 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Dren, Gunman Taco Truck music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-gunman-taco-truck) | 1 in 50 | $16.70 23.86 coins | 2.4% | 795 | 753.0 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) | 45.0% | $1.22 1.75 coins | 4.0% | 16,795 | 16942.0 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Welcome to the Clutch sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-welcome-to-the-clutch) | 45.0% | $0.52 0.75 coins | 1.7% | 17,015 | 16942.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [\< blank >](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%3C%20blank%20%3E) $15.11 21.59 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 754.7x 2026-11-08 19:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $15.28 21.83 coins $11.4K 16,295 coins 746.4x 2026-11-06 06:23 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $8,887 12,695 coins 588.5x 2026-11-10 15:23 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.28 21.83 coins $8,831 12,615 coins 577.9x 2026-11-08 01:08 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.28 21.83 coins $8,831 12,615 coins 577.9x 2026-11-07 04:10 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.28 21.83 coins $8,831 12,615 coins 577.9x 2026-11-03 18:36 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [YT/AugustGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/YT%2FAugustGambles) $15.28 21.83 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 127.6x 2026-11-08 05:55 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [autodriver](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/autodriver) $15.28 21.83 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 127.6x 2026-11-04 00:08 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $15.28 21.83 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 127.6x 2026-11-03 16:31 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $15.28 21.83 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 127.6x 2026-11-03 03:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=august) [Sticker | Welcome to the Clutch sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-welcome-to-the-clutch) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $0.52 0.75 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) [StephanCurry csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/StephanCurry%20csgoroll.com) $15.10 21.57 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Welcome to the Clutch sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-welcome-to-the-clutch) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $0.52 0.75 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Sticker | Welcome to the Clutch sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-welcome-to-the-clutch) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $0.52 0.75 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Sticker | Welcome to the Clutch sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-welcome-to-the-clutch) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $0.52 0.75 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Sticker | Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) [Bismillah Alrahim Alraham](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bismillah%20Alrahim%20Alraham) $15.10 21.57 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Sticker | Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) Hidden $15.10 21.57 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $15.10 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.10 | 90.93% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.22 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.28 | 90.93% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 4.7% extraordinary 2.0% rare 0.1% classified 0.7% epic 0.5% high 47.0% exotic 45.0% best hit $11.4K (754.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt