--- title: "Aura case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Aura ($14.88) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.26% over 6,859 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Aura](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Aura A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura?window=all) Price · $14.88 · 21.26 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $13.53 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.26% · 6,859 openings, odds method Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.97% ±16.53 718 openings 7 days · 91.90% ±5.89 5,592 openings 30 days · 90.26% ±5.31 6,859 openings since tracking started · 90.26% ±5.31 6,859 openings 75.0% 92.0% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura?window=24h) | 718 | 91.97% ±16.5 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura?window=7d) | 5,592 | 91.90% ±5.89 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura) | 6,859 | 90.26% ±5.31 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aura?window=all) | 6,859 | 90.26% ±5.31 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,873 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $709 1,013 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $420 600 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 8.2 | 0.36× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $312 446 coins | 5.8% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.05× | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $310 443 coins | 1.1% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $158 225 coins | 15.1% | 108 | 89.3 | 1.21× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $109 155 coins | 4.0% | 34 | 34.4 | 0.99× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 133 | $108 154 coins | 6.0% | 54 | 51.5 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $44.77 63.95 coins | 16.5% | 354 | 343.7 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| Doppler Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-doppler-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 33 | $34.64 49.49 coins | 7.7% | 202 | 206.2 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 1 in 14 | $17.67 25.25 coins | 9.1% | 448 | 481.1 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Miami Tier6 (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6-holo) | 1 in 14 | $15.60 22.28 coins | 8.1% | 449 | 481.1 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Opal Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-opal-flick-holo) | 1 in 14 | $7.05 10.07 coins | 3.6% | 488 | 481.1 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Winstrike Team (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winstrike-team-foil-katowice-2019) | 10.0% | $6.54 9.34 coins | 4.8% | 689 | 687.3 | 1.00× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $6.53 9.33 coins | 7.2% | 991 | 1031.0 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 18.0% | $3.27 4.67 coins | 4.3% | 1,301 | 1237.1 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) | 25.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 1.2% | 1,729 | 1718.3 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=aura) [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sticker | Winstrike Team (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winstrike-team-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $6.54 9.34 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Sticker | Miami Tier6 (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6-holo) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $15.60 22.28 coins 1.05x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Sticker | Winstrike Team (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winstrike-team-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $14.88 21.26 coins $6.54 9.34 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $14.88 21.26 coins $6.53 9.33 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $14.88 | 90.93% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.89 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.05 | 90.92% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.08 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.5% rare 0.5% exotic 13.0% remarkable 21.0% restricted 15.0% classified 18.0% high 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt