---
title: "Aurora case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Aurora ($28.16) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 12 items with odds, observed 94.11% over 2,811 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Aurora](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Aurora

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora?window=all)

Price · $28.16 · 40.23 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $25.60 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.11% · 2,811 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.78% ±24.89 169 openings

7 days · 94.71% ±6.67 2,333 openings

30 days · 94.11% ±6.08 2,811 openings

since tracking started · 94.11% ±6.08 2,811 openings

68.0% 93.8% 119.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora?window=24h) | 169 | 93.78% ±24.9 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora?window=7d) | 2,333 | 94.71% ±6.67 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora) | 2,811 | 94.11% ±6.08 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aurora?window=all) | 2,811 | 94.11% ±6.08 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,817 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,296 3,280 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $331 473 coins | 1.3% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.77× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $263 375 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 7.0 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $239 341 coins | 6.0% | 17 | 18.0 | 0.94× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $122 175 coins | 9.6% | 55 | 56.3 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 10.0% | $85.40 122 coins | 33.4% | 287 | 281.7 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $64.83 92.61 coins | 25.3% | 313 | 281.7 | 1.11× |
| [D Squadron Officer \| NZSAS agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/d-squadron-officer-nzsas) | 1 in 20 | $60.00 85.71 coins | 11.7% | 132 | 140.8 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.66 9.52 coins | 3.9% | 413 | 422.6 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 17.0% | $6.17 8.82 coins | 4.1% | 477 | 478.9 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.39 1.99 coins | 1.1% | 545 | 563.4 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.29 0.42 coins | 0.2% | 569 | 563.4 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $2,296 3,280 coins 81.53x 2026-11-10 11:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=aurora)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $64.83 92.61 coins 2.30x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $239 341 coins 8.48x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $85.40 122 coins 3.03x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $6.66 9.52 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $64.83 92.61 coins 2.30x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) Hidden $28.16 40.23 coins $6.17 8.82 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 05:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $28.16 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $28.17 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.17 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.46 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $28.52 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $28.52 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.51 | 90.90% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 12.3% classified 0.6% restricted 25.0% distinguished 5.0% pink 17.0% consumer 20.0% industrial 20.0% best hit $2,296 (81.53x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt