--- title: "Autumn Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Autumn Case ($1.47) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.10% from 6 items with odds, observed 91.55% over 25K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Autumn Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Autumn Case A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case?window=all) Price · $1.47 · 2.1 coins Advertised RTP · 91.10% · EV $1.34 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.55% · 25K openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.37% ±7.32 2,060 openings 7 days · 91.55% ±2.36 20.7K openings 30 days · 91.55% ±2.15 25K openings since tracking started · 91.55% ±2.15 25K openings 78.5% 86.5% 94.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case?window=24h) | 2,060 | 86.37% ±7.32 | −1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case?window=7d) | 20.7K | 91.55% ±2.36 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case) | 25K | 91.55% ±2.15 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/autumn-case?window=all) | 25K | 91.55% ±2.15 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $273 390 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $73.50 105 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $8.54 12.2 coins | 60.6% | 2,405 | 2378.8 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $6.31 9.01 coins | 2.4% | 120 | 125.3 | 0.96× | | [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $1.16 1.66 coins | 34.7% | 10,075 | 10021.2 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 50.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 2.1% | 12,453 | 12526.5 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=autumn-case) [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $1.47 2.1 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Last Dive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.47 2.1 coins $1.16 1.66 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $1.47 2.1 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $1.47 2.1 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $1.47 2.1 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Last Dive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-minimal-wear) [Div](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Div) $1.47 2.1 coins $1.16 1.66 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Last Dive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.47 2.1 coins $1.16 1.66 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [Div](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Div) $1.47 2.1 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $1.47 2.1 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Last Dive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.47 2.1 coins $1.16 1.66 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.47 | 91.10% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $1.49 | 91.10% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.48 | 90.96% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 40.0% covert 0.0% industrial 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.10 on average: an expected loss of $8.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt