--- title: "AWP OF THRONES case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "AWP OF THRONES ($68.81) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.86% over 4,497 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones rendered: 2026-11-12T07:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [AWP OF THRONES](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · AWP OF THRONES A case on CSGORoll (awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones?window=all) Price · $68.81 · 98.3 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $62.56 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.86% · 4,497 openings, odds method Variance · 27.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93 openings · below min 7 days · 88.14% ±17.67 3,356 openings 30 days · 90.86% ±15.30 4,497 openings since tracking started · 90.86% ±15.30 4,497 openings -0.5% 85.3% 171.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones?window=24h) | 93 | 64.09% ±106.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones?window=7d) | 3,356 | 88.14% ±17.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones) | 4,497 | 90.86% ±15.3 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awp-of-thrones?window=all) | 4,497 | 90.86% ±15.3 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,497 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,941 9,915 coins | 11.1% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $6,542 9,345 coins | 15.7% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.74× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 9.8% | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $878 1,254 coins | 7.0% | 24 | 22.5 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $445 636 coins | 17.8% | 98 | 112.4 | 0.87× | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $158 225 coins | 13.8% | 259 | 247.3 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $116 166 coins | 9.3% | 257 | 224.9 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 6.6% | 371 | 359.8 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 13.0% | $27.10 38.71 coins | 5.6% | 595 | 584.6 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 15.0% | $6.17 8.82 coins | 1.5% | 645 | 674.5 | 0.96× | | [Patch \| Dragon patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-dragon) | 24.0% | $2.74 3.92 coins | 1.1% | 1,079 | 1079.3 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) | 25.9% | $1.82 2.6 coins | 0.8% | 1,140 | 1162.5 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 12 Nov, 02:34 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $6,941 9,915 coins 100.9x 2026-11-10 13:10 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $6,941 9,915 coins 100.9x 2026-11-10 11:38 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $6,941 9,915 coins 100.9x 2026-11-10 10:59 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) Hidden $68.91 98.44 coins $6,930 9,900 coins 100.6x 2026-11-04 15:24 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) Hidden $68.91 98.44 coins $6,930 9,900 coins 100.6x 2026-11-03 16:08 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $68.91 98.44 coins $6,930 9,900 coins 100.6x 2026-11-03 10:08 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Kazlic](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kazlic) $68.91 98.44 coins $6,727 9,610 coins 97.62x 2026-11-04 23:51 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $68.91 98.44 coins $6,727 9,610 coins 97.62x 2026-11-03 16:01 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $68.81 98.3 coins $6,542 9,345 coins 95.07x 2026-11-10 12:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $6,542 9,345 coins 95.07x 2026-11-09 15:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=awp-of-thrones) [Sticker | Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $1.82 2.6 coins 0.03x 2026-11-12 06:03 UTC [Patch | Dragon patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-dragon) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $2.74 3.92 coins 0.04x 2026-11-12 06:03 UTC [Sticker | Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) [JustNoSkillPvP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/JustNoSkillPvP) $68.81 98.3 coins $1.82 2.6 coins 0.03x 2026-11-12 06:03 UTC [Patch | Dragon patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-dragon) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $2.74 3.92 coins 0.04x 2026-11-12 06:02 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) [JustNoSkillPvP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/JustNoSkillPvP) $68.81 98.3 coins $6.17 8.82 coins 0.09x 2026-11-12 06:02 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $445 636 coins 6.47x 2026-11-12 06:02 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $6.17 8.82 coins 0.09x 2026-11-12 05:40 UTC [Patch | Dragon patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-dragon) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $2.74 3.92 coins 0.04x 2026-11-12 05:40 UTC [AWP | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) [† MŲT3KI †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%80%A0%20%20M%C5%B2T3KI%20%20%E2%80%A0) $68.81 98.3 coins $116 166 coins 1.69x 2026-11-12 05:40 UTC [AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $68.81 98.3 coins $51.53 73.61 coins 0.75x 2026-11-12 05:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $68.81 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $68.77 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $68.91 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% legendary 0.4% classified 18.5% restricted 13.0% exotic 64.9% best hit $6,941 (100.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt