--- title: "AWPtimistic case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "AWPtimistic ($5.70) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.87% from 9 items with odds, observed 77.84% over 15.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [AWPtimistic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · AWPtimistic A case on CSGORoll (awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic?window=all) Price · $5.70 · 8.14 coins Advertised RTP · 90.87% · EV $5.18 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.84% · 15.7K openings, odds method Variance · 691.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 52.42% ±139.71 1,360 openings 7 days · 83.63% ±46.08 12.7K openings 30 days · 77.84% ±41.46 15.7K openings since tracking started · 77.84% ±41.46 15.7K openings -0.5% 96.3% 193.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic?window=24h) | 1,360 | 52.42% ±139.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic?window=7d) | 12.7K | 83.63% ±46.1 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic) | 15.7K | 77.84% ±41.5 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/awptimistic?window=all) | 15.7K | 77.84% ±41.5 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 40.9% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $17.51 25.01 coins | 16.9% | 790 | 784.8 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.05 17.21 coins | 11.6% | 769 | 784.8 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $9.83 14.05 coins | 9.5% | 825 | 784.8 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.30 4.71 coins | 3.2% | 757 | 784.8 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.85 2.64 coins | 7.1% | 3,112 | 3139.0 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.83 2.62 coins | 7.1% | 3,218 | 3139.0 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.80 1.15 coins | 3.1% | 3,138 | 3139.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 0.5% | 3,084 | 3135.9 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.77 8.24 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 1,877x 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $5.77 8.24 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 1,877x 2026-11-05 03:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=awptimistic) [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $5.70 8.14 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $5.70 8.14 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [hieschdavid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hieschdavid) $5.70 8.14 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $5.70 8.14 coins $9.83 14.05 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) [User#89](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%2389) $5.70 8.14 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $5.70 8.14 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $5.70 8.14 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $5.70 8.14 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) Hidden $5.70 8.14 coins $3.30 4.71 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) [hieschdavid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hieschdavid) $5.70 8.14 coins $0.80 1.15 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $5.70 | 90.87% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.70 | 90.90% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $5.70 | 90.92% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.70 | 90.90% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.71 | 90.92% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $5.77 | 90.86% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $5.77 | 90.93% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.77 | 90.95% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% industrial 25.0% classified 10.0% restricted 65.0% best hit $10.8K (1,877x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.87 on average: an expected loss of $9.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt