--- title: "Aztec Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Aztec Case ($165.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 6 items with odds, observed 78.62% over 305 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Aztec Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Aztec Case A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case?window=all) Price · $165.68 · 237 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $150.62 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.62% · 305 openings, odds method Variance · 6.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 78.03% ±29.98 279 openings 30 days · 78.62% ±28.68 305 openings since tracking started · 78.62% ±28.68 305 openings 15.5% 93.0% 170.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case?window=24h) | 42 | 92.85% ±76.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case?window=7d) | 279 | 78.03% ±30.0 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case) | 305 | 78.62% ±28.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/aztec-case?window=all) | 305 | 78.62% ±28.7 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 305 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1,900 2,715 coins | 63.1% | 13 | 15.3 | 0.85× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $587 838 coins | 19.5% | 11 | 15.3 | 0.72× | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 22.5% | $85.40 122 coins | 12.8% | 75 | 68.6 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 22.5% | $26.10 37.28 coins | 3.9% | 60 | 68.6 | 0.87× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 22.5% | $3.21 4.58 coins | 0.5% | 74 | 68.6 | 1.08× | | [M249 \| Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) | 22.5% | $2.04 2.91 coins | 0.3% | 72 | 68.6 | 1.05× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-08 11:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-08 11:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-08 08:17 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-08 01:04 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-08 01:03 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-08 01:03 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-07 09:08 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-06 19:10 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) Hidden $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $164 234 coins $1,914 2,735 coins 11.67x 2026-11-04 20:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=aztec-case) [M249 | Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) Hidden $166 237 coins $2.04 2.91 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $166 237 coins $3.21 4.58 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $166 237 coins $3.21 4.58 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $166 237 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) Hidden $166 237 coins $26.10 37.28 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $166 237 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $166 237 coins $3.21 4.58 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $166 237 coins $3.21 4.58 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [M249 | Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) Hidden $166 237 coins $2.04 2.91 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC [M249 | Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) [I AM THE PIRATE KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20AM%20THE%20PIRATE%20KING) $166 237 coins $2.04 2.91 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $166 | 90.91% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $166 | 90.91% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $164 | 90.91% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 10.0% covert 45.0% mil spec 22.5% restricted 22.5% best hit $1,914 (11.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt