--- title: "Backstab case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Backstab ($50.47) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 85.22% over 485 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Backstab](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Backstab A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab?window=all) Price · $50.47 · 72.1 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $45.88 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.22% · 485 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 73.46% ±26.56 365 openings 30 days · 85.22% ±23.04 485 openings since tracking started · 85.22% ±23.04 485 openings 46.5% 77.8% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab?window=7d) | 365 | 73.46% ±26.6 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab) | 485 | 85.22% ±23.0 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/backstab?window=all) | 485 | 85.22% ±23.0 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 485 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,474 2,105 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $804 1,148 coins | 14.0% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $605 864 coins | 26.4% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $348 497 coins | 7.6% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.24× | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $192 274 coins | 4.2% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.62× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $122 175 coins | 8.0% | 17 | 14.5 | 1.17× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $73.50 105 coins | 3.2% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.82× | | [Trapper Aggressor \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-aggressor-guerrilla-warfare) | 30.0% | $22.20 31.71 coins | 14.5% | 137 | 145.5 | 0.94× | | ['Two Times' McCoy \| USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) | 30.0% | $12.73 18.18 coins | 8.3% | 146 | 145.5 | 1.00× | | [Arno The Overgrown \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/arno-the-overgrown-guerrilla-warfare) | 30.0% | $11.30 16.14 coins | 7.4% | 156 | 145.5 | 1.07× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $51.76 73.94 coins $1,415 2,022 coins 27.35x 2026-11-04 13:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $51.76 73.94 coins $849 1,213 coins 16.41x 2026-11-04 22:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [Philiacos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Philiacos) $51.76 73.94 coins $849 1,213 coins 16.41x 2026-11-04 21:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $51.76 73.94 coins $849 1,213 coins 16.41x 2026-11-04 18:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $51.76 73.94 coins $849 1,213 coins 16.41x 2026-11-04 12:34 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.76 73.94 coins $629 899 coins 12.16x 2026-11-04 21:08 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $51.76 73.94 coins $629 899 coins 12.16x 2026-11-04 16:56 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.76 73.94 coins $629 899 coins 12.16x 2026-11-04 13:26 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Philiacos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Philiacos) $51.76 73.94 coins $629 899 coins 12.16x 2026-11-04 13:16 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $605 864 coins 11.98x 2026-11-09 13:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=backstab) [Trapper Aggressor | Guerrilla Warfare agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-aggressor-guerrilla-warfare) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $22.20 31.71 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 13:35 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $12.73 18.18 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 13:35 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $122 175 coins 2.43x 2026-11-10 13:35 UTC [Trapper Aggressor | Guerrilla Warfare agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-aggressor-guerrilla-warfare) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $22.20 31.71 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 13:35 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $12.73 18.18 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 13:35 UTC [Arno The Overgrown | Guerrilla Warfare agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/arno-the-overgrown-guerrilla-warfare) [AWP GOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AWP%20GOD) $50.47 72.1 coins $11.30 16.14 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 13:35 UTC [Trapper Aggressor | Guerrilla Warfare agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-aggressor-guerrilla-warfare) [bmfaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/bmfaby) $50.47 72.1 coins $22.20 31.71 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 03:58 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $12.73 18.18 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 03:58 UTC ['Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACP agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-usaf-tacp) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $12.73 18.18 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 03:58 UTC [Trapper Aggressor | Guerrilla Warfare agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-aggressor-guerrilla-warfare) Hidden $50.47 72.1 coins $22.20 31.71 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 03:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $50.47 | 90.91% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $50.76 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.76 | 90.90% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.2% covert 7.8% classified 2.0% distinguished 30.0% superior 60.0% best hit $1,415 (27.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt