--- title: "Bacteria case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bacteria ($18.45) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 89.80% over 10.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria rendered: 2026-11-11T20:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Bacteria](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Bacteria A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria?window=all) Price · $18.45 · 26.36 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $16.78 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.80% · 10.4K openings, odds method Variance · 28.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 58 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.93% ±28.24 1,355 openings 7 days · 89.49% ±10.96 8,843 openings 30 days · 89.80% ±10.09 10.4K openings since tracking started · 89.80% ±10.09 10.4K openings 56.0% 85.0% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria?window=24h) | 1,355 | 84.93% ±28.2 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria?window=7d) | 8,843 | 89.49% ±11.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria) | 10.4K | 89.80% ±10.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bacteria?window=all) | 10.4K | 89.80% ±10.1 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,731 2,473 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,567 2,239 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,445 2,064 coins | 8.6% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.15× | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,299 1,856 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,108 1,583 coins | 2.6% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.91× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $665 950 coins | 13.9% | 33 | 36.6 | 0.90× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 357 | $398 569 coins | 6.6% | 29 | 29.3 | 0.99× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $396 565 coins | 4.0% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $342 488 coins | 13.4% | 68 | 69.1 | 0.98× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 217 | $310 443 coins | 8.5% | 48 | 48.1 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 175 | $285 407 coins | 9.7% | 55 | 59.7 | 0.92× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $199 284 coins | 12.2% | 100 | 107.8 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $123 176 coins | 9.0% | 125 | 127.7 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir P90 \| Verdant Growth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-field-tested) | 47.5% | $0.25 0.36 coins | 0.7% | 4,975 | 4970.9 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-anolis-minimal-wear) | 47.5% | $0.07 0.1 coins | 0.2% | 4,983 | 4970.9 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $19.03 27.19 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 107.2x 2026-11-06 21:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $18.45 26.35 coins $1,988 2,840 coins 107.8x 2026-11-08 18:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [coverq](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/coverq) $18.45 26.36 coins $1,731 2,473 coins 93.82x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $1,731 2,473 coins 93.82x 2026-11-10 17:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $19.03 27.19 coins $1,620 2,314 coins 85.10x 2026-11-05 16:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $1,567 2,239 coins 84.94x 2026-11-09 19:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $1,445 2,064 coins 78.30x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $1,445 2,064 coins 78.30x 2026-11-09 13:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $18.45 26.35 coins $1,445 2,064 coins 78.33x 2026-11-09 00:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $19.03 27.19 coins $1,445 2,064 coins 75.91x 2026-11-07 23:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=bacteria) [Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-anolis-minimal-wear) [coverq](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/coverq) $18.45 26.36 coins $0.07 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-field-tested) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-anolis-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.07 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-field-tested) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-field-tested) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-field-tested) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:16 UTC [Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-anolis-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.07 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-anolis-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.07 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-anolis-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.07 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-field-tested) Hidden $18.45 26.36 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $18.45 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.45 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.03 | 90.90% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.0% covert 0.2% classified 0.7% restricted 3.2% extraordinary 0.9% industrial 47.5% consumer 47.5% best hit $2,040 (107.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt