--- title: "Baller Knifes case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Baller Knifes ($382.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 116.18% over 15 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Baller Knifes](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Baller Knifes A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes?window=all) Price · $382.54 · 546 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $347.76 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.18% · 15 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 11 openings · below min 30 days · 15 openings · below min since tracking started · 15 openings · below min 6.5% 85.2% 164.0% **Small sample.** 15 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes?window=7d) | 11 | 62.21% ±55.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes) | 15 | 116.18% ±47.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/baller-knifes?window=all) | 15 | 116.18% ±47.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $1,180 1,685 coins | 33.9% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $937 1,339 coins | 13.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $799 1,142 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $541 773 coins | 15.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $536 766 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $268 383 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-field-tested) | 11.0% | $148 211 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $145 207 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 11.0% | $141 201 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.21× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 12.5% | $79.80 114 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-field-tested) | 12.5% | $65.09 92.98 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $391 558 coins $1,183 1,690 coins 3.03x 2026-11-04 12:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $391 558 coins $1,183 1,690 coins 3.03x 2026-11-04 12:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $391 558 coins $1,183 1,690 coins 3.03x 2026-11-04 12:42 UTC [★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) Hidden $391 558 coins $563 804 coins 1.44x 2026-11-05 00:06 UTC [★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) [LongKoala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LongKoala) $391 558 coins $563 804 coins 1.44x 2026-11-04 12:42 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $391 558 coins $540 772 coins 1.38x 2026-11-05 00:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=baller-knifes) [★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $383 546 coins $141 201 coins 0.37x 2026-11-09 04:42 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $383 546 coins $141 201 coins 0.37x 2026-11-09 04:42 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $383 546 coins $145 207 coins 0.38x 2026-11-09 04:41 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $383 546 coins $268 383 coins 0.70x 2026-11-09 04:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-field-tested) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $383 546 coins $148 211 coins 0.39x 2026-11-09 04:41 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-field-tested) Hidden $391 558 coins $66.16 94.52 coins 0.17x 2026-11-05 00:06 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $391 558 coins $79.10 113 coins 0.20x 2026-11-05 00:06 UTC [★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) Hidden $391 558 coins $563 804 coins 1.44x 2026-11-05 00:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $391 558 coins $279 398 coins 0.71x 2026-11-05 00:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $391 558 coins $540 772 coins 1.38x 2026-11-05 00:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $383 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $383 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $391 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 100.0% best hit $1,183 (3.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt