--- title: "Balloon case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Balloon ($4.18) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.96% from 15 items with odds, observed 90.96% over 11.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Balloon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Balloon A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon?window=all) Price · $4.18 · 5.97 coins Advertised RTP · 90.96% · EV $3.80 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.96% · 11.9K openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.99% ±10.76 1,627 openings 7 days · 91.73% ±4.41 9,713 openings 30 days · 90.96% ±3.99 11.9K openings since tracking started · 90.96% ±3.99 11.9K openings 85.5% 97.0% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon?window=24h) | 1,627 | 96.99% ±10.8 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon?window=7d) | 9,713 | 91.73% ±4.41 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon) | 11.9K | 90.96% ±3.99 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balloon?window=all) | 11.9K | 90.96% ±3.99 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $77.70 111 coins | 6.1% | 35 | 35.7 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $72.80 104 coins | 13.4% | 83 | 83.2 | 1.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $42.11 60.15 coins | 11.1% | 117 | 118.9 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $17.72 25.31 coins | 14.0% | 357 | 356.7 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.02 24.32 coins | 22.4% | 606 | 594.5 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $6.41 9.15 coins | 5.1% | 387 | 356.7 | 1.09× | | [Sticker \| Candy Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-candy-buttery-holo) | 1 in 20 | $3.14 4.49 coins | 4.1% | 572 | 594.5 | 0.96× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.10 4.43 coins | 4.1% | 563 | 594.5 | 0.95× | | [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $2.03 2.9 coins | 5.3% | 1,163 | 1188.9 | 0.98× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.02 2.88 coins | 4.2% | 962 | 951.1 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.51 2.15 coins | 3.2% | 930 | 951.1 | 0.98× | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $1.31 1.87 coins | 2.0% | 683 | 701.5 | 0.97× | | [G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.62 0.88 coins | 2.3% | 1,711 | 1664.5 | 1.03× | | [M249 \| System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.49 0.7 coins | 1.8% | 1,675 | 1664.5 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 17.1% | $0.20 0.28 coins | 0.9% | 2,045 | 2033.0 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=balloon) [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.18 5.97 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.18 5.97 coins $6.41 9.15 coins 1.53x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $4.18 5.97 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) Hidden $4.18 5.97 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) Hidden $4.18 5.97 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $4.18 5.97 coins $0.62 0.88 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $4.18 5.97 coins $0.62 0.88 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) Hidden $4.18 5.97 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [P90 | Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $4.18 5.97 coins $17.02 24.32 coins 4.07x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [PP-Bizon | Osiris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.18 5.97 coins $2.03 2.9 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $4.18 | 90.96% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.18 | 90.97% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $4.20 | 90.93% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.20 | 90.90% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.19 | 90.92% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $4.19 | 90.97% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $4.19 | 90.90% | 15 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.19 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.20 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% restricted 29.6% classified 3.0% violet 5.0% uncommon 3.0% remarkable 5.0% milspec 8.0% consumer 14.0% mil spec 14.0% industrial 17.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.96 on average: an expected loss of $9.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt