--- title: "Balls of Steel case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Balls of Steel ($73.90) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 90.28% over 443 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel rendered: 2026-11-13T03:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Balls of Steel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Balls of Steel A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel?window=all) Price · $73.90 · 106 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $67.18 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.28% · 443 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 56.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 7 openings · below min 7 days · 56 openings · below min 30 days · 90.28% ±14.25 443 openings since tracking started · 90.28% ±14.25 443 openings -0.5% 82.3% 165.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel?window=24h) | 7 | 51.12% ±113.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel?window=7d) | 56 | 74.74% ±40.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel) | 443 | 90.28% ±14.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/balls-of-steel?window=all) | 443 | 90.28% ±14.3 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 443 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,932 2,760 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 500 | $1,424 2,034 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $566 808 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $197 282 coins | 8.8% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 11.0% | $160 229 coins | 26.2% | 58 | 48.7 | 1.19× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $145 207 coins | 23.7% | 46 | 48.7 | 0.94× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 13.0% | $112 160 coins | 21.7% | 52 | 57.6 | 0.90× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $110 157 coins | 8.2% | 19 | 22.2 | 0.86× | | [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) | 22.4% | $2.98 4.26 coins | 1.0% | 89 | 99.2 | 0.90× | | [Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.67 2.38 coins | 0.5% | 108 | 88.6 | 1.22× | | [Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.11 1.58 coins | 0.2% | 57 | 62.0 | 0.92× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Philiacos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Philiacos) $74.49 106 coins $1,907 2,725 coins 25.61x 2026-11-04 18:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $74.49 106 coins $564 806 coins 7.57x 2026-11-03 01:26 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.49 106 coins $564 806 coins 7.57x 2026-11-03 01:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=balls-of-steel) [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $73.90 106 coins $2.98 4.26 coins 0.04x 2026-11-12 17:58 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) [Philiacos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Philiacos) $73.90 106 coins $1.67 2.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-12 17:58 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.90 106 coins $145 207 coins 1.96x 2026-11-12 17:58 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) Hidden $73.90 106 coins $1.67 2.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-12 06:34 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) Hidden $73.90 106 coins $1.67 2.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-12 06:34 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) Hidden $73.90 106 coins $1.67 2.38 coins 0.02x 2026-11-12 06:34 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $73.90 106 coins $110 157 coins 1.49x 2026-11-12 06:34 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) Hidden $73.91 106 coins $1.71 2.44 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [Nova | Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $73.91 106 coins $1.71 2.44 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $73.91 106 coins $160 229 coins 2.17x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC | $73.90 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $73.91 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $73.79 | 90.91% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $74.51 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $74.49 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.1% covert 25.2% extraordinary 18.3% industrial 22.4% restricted 20.0% mil spec 14.0% best hit $1,907 (25.61x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt