--- title: "Ballsy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ballsy ($3.13) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 87.73% over 125K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Ballsy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Ballsy A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy?window=all) Price · $3.13 · 4.47 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $2.84 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.73% · 125K openings, odds method Variance · 134.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 455 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.25% ±17.90 16.2K openings 7 days · 86.01% ±7.05 105K openings 30 days · 87.73% ±6.44 125K openings since tracking started · 87.73% ±6.44 125K openings 70.5% 89.3% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy?window=24h) | 16.2K | 89.25% ±17.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy?window=7d) | 105K | 86.01% ±7.05 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy) | 125K | 87.73% ±6.44 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ballsy?window=all) | 125K | 87.73% ±6.44 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,226 1,752 coins | 4.3% | 8 | 12.6 | 0.64× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $844 1,205 coins | 14.8% | 74 | 62.9 | 1.18× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $799 1,142 coins | 5.6% | 28 | 25.1 | 1.11× | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $748 1,068 coins | 6.6% | 29 | 31.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $745 1,064 coins | 3.9% | 18 | 18.9 | 0.95× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 3,333 | $517 738 coins | 5.4% | 37 | 37.7 | 0.98× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 1,429 | $412 589 coins | 10.1% | 71 | 88.0 | 0.81× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $295 421 coins | 8.3% | 91 | 100.6 | 0.90× | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $225 322 coins | 7.9% | 114 | 125.7 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $197 281 coins | 6.9% | 106 | 125.7 | 0.84× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $190 272 coins | 6.7% | 144 | 125.7 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $174 249 coins | 6.1% | 113 | 125.7 | 0.90× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $142 203 coins | 5.0% | 137 | 125.7 | 1.09× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $123 176 coins | 4.3% | 117 | 125.7 | 0.93× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $103 147 coins | 3.6% | 125 | 125.7 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 49.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 62,219 | 62238.8 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 49.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 62,304 | 62238.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins $1,226 1,752 coins 391.9x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins $1,226 1,752 coins 391.9x 2026-11-10 20:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins $1,226 1,752 coins 391.9x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [IceCu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/IceCu) $3.13 4.47 coins $1,226 1,752 coins 391.9x 2026-11-09 20:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins $1,226 1,752 coins 391.9x 2026-11-09 15:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins $1,226 1,752 coins 391.9x 2026-11-09 10:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [BOSS csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BOSS%20csgoroll.com) $3.13 4.47 coins $1,226 1,752 coins 391.9x 2026-11-08 17:24 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Jepulis\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jepulis__) $3.19 4.56 coins $1,220 1,743 coins 382.2x 2026-11-07 22:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [DYLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DYLAN) $3.19 4.56 coins $1,220 1,743 coins 382.2x 2026-11-05 12:24 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $3.19 4.56 coins $878 1,254 coins 275.0x 2026-11-08 12:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ballsy) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Player](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Player) $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Stitch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Stitch) $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [wXn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wXn) $3.13 4.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.13 | 90.90% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.19 | 90.96% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.6% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 0.1% legendary 0.1% mil spec 0.1% classified 0.1% consumer 99.0% best hit $1,226 (391.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt