---
title: "Barren case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Barren ($35.93) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 14 items with odds, observed 90.86% over 288 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Barren](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Barren

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren?window=all)

Price · $35.93 · 51.33 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $32.67 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.86% · 288 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 30 openings · below min

7 days · 88.07% ±9.25 238 openings

30 days · 90.86% ±8.42 288 openings

since tracking started · 90.86% ±8.42 288 openings

51.5% 78.0% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren?window=24h) | 30 | 78.23% ±25.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren?window=7d) | 238 | 88.07% ±9.25 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren) | 288 | 90.86% ±8.42 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/barren?window=all) | 288 | 90.86% ±8.42 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 288 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $192 274 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $179 256 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $90.30 129 coins | 8.3% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $81.20 116 coins | 12.4% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $71.40 102 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $65.46 93.51 coins | 10.0% | 13 | 14.4 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $41.98 59.97 coins | 9.0% | 34 | 20.2 | 1.69× |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $32.28 46.12 coins | 8.9% | 25 | 25.9 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $29.50 42.15 coins | 7.2% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) | 23.4% | $28.29 40.42 coins | 20.3% | 60 | 67.4 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $23.14 33.06 coins | 5.7% | 21 | 23.0 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 10.0% | $18.43 26.33 coins | 5.6% | 34 | 28.8 | 1.18× |
| [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.52 20.74 coins | 2.2% | 8 | 14.4 | 0.56× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.92 9.89 coins | 3.2% | 43 | 43.2 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=barren)

[Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.93 51.33 coins $28.29 40.42 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $35.93 51.33 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) Hidden $35.93 51.33 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $35.93 51.33 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $35.93 51.33 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.93 51.33 coins $28.29 40.42 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $35.93 51.33 coins $29.50 42.15 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.93 51.33 coins $28.29 40.42 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.93 51.33 coins $28.29 40.42 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) [Queen B ❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Queen%20B%20%E2%9D%A4) $35.93 51.33 coins $32.28 46.12 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $35.93 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.06 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.06 | 90.92% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 7.1% classified 62.4% restricted 3.0% covert 5.0% extraordinary 0.5% industrial 14.0% consumer 8.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt